United Ireland would trap former Britons in ailing economy tethered to Euro, warns report

With Michelle O’Neill now installed as Northern Ireland’s First Minister, and Sinn Fein pushing for a united Ireland, a hard-hitting new report has claimed the resulting Celtic Tiger would be more of a paper tiger.

And one expert has warned unity would represent a serious blow to people living in a region which is currently part of the United Kingdom.

Ms O’Neill, 47, who was confirmed in her post on February 3, is the first Republican leader of Northern Ireland’s devolved government, and her appointment is a significant moment symbolically.

The report, published today by the Global Britain website and written by tax consultant Bob Lyddon, warns of serious consequences if Sinn Fein eventually succeeds in its objective.

He told Express.co.uk: “The Celtic Tiger is a sham, only a much bigger one than other commentators have worked out, in part because the size of sham is being understandably concealed by the Irish authorities.”

Dublin’s strategy, “aimed at achieving tax avoidance for global multinationals”, was based on three pillars, Mr Lyddon, founder of Lyddon Consulting Services, suggested.

He explained: “The first is Irish subsidiaries of these multinationals invoicing customers for goods made elsewhere and services performed anywhere, so as to concentrate revenues in Ireland.

“The second is the Irish tax authorities permitting large spurious expenses to be deducted by these Irish subsidiaries so as to massively reduce their taxable profits, the expenses for Ireland being invoiced to them by sister subsidiaries of the same parent but based in a ‘sunny places with shady people’, like Panama, Belize or Mauritius.

“Thirdly the build-up of a huge business in aircraft leasing that generates depreciation allowances which are used by the Irish subsidiaries of these multinationals to further reduce their taxable profits.

It was this final aspect which had “really gone under the radar”, Mr Lyddon said.

He continued: “There is no economic substance to what is done in Ireland: it is all about creating paper trails for accounting and tax purposes.

“For example, the aircraft only ever go to Ireland if Ryanair is their user. Most of the aircraft never go anywhere near Ireland, and nor do any manufactured goods. Services are re-invoiced through Ireland with little or no value added.”

With specific reference to budget airline Ryanair, led by outspoken CEO Michael O’Leary, Mr Lyddon pointed out that the company’s predecessor, Guinness Peat Aviation, was the “model” upon which the Irish aircraft leasing business was based.

The company went “spectacularly bust” in 1992 at which point founder Tony Ryan launched Ryanair, Mr Lyddon said.

He added: “The Irish authorities produce figures that obfuscate all of the above, but the Global Britain report, based on original research, has worked out the true picture.

“This is a global level shame that is bound to blow up at some point, as Guinness Peat Aviation blew up in 1992, and as the whole country blew up in 2010.

“If Irish unification has taken place by then, the financial security of the people of Northern Ireland will prove an illusion and they will have bought into a lie.

“They will get to pay up even if they have not benefited – and of course they will pay up in euros, because, as part-and-parcel of Irish unification they will be compelled to give up the pound and adopt the euro.”

The report suggests Ireland’s economy is artificially inflated by re-invoicing through Ireland of goods made elsewhere and services performed elsewhere, by the subsidiaries of foreign multinationals, with this activity amounting to £308 billion (€360 billion) in 2022, Mr Lyddon said.

Combined with lease rentals on this fleet amounting to £89 billion (€104 billion) over the same period, the total figure added up to £396 billion (€464 billion), with the objective being “to reduce the tax bills of foreign multinationals”, Mr Lyddon said.

The size of this “offshore economy” dwarfed the “onshore” one, in other words the £213billion (€249 billion) of sales of goods and services by Irish businesses in 2022, Mr Lyddon stressed.

He said: “This €249 billion plus the €464 billion ‘offshore’ economy mean that Ireland’s 2022 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was €713 billion – not the €503 billion put out by the Irish authorities.

“The ‘offshore’ economy is €215 billion larger than the ‘onshore’ one and represents 65 percent of the ‘Celtic Tiger’ – no wonder the Irish authorities want to keep that under wraps.

“This mammoth distortion is what the proponents of a United Ireland would have the people of Northern Ireland join in with.

“It is bound to blow up at some stage, like Ireland did in 2010, and with spectacular results.”

Former Tory MSP and Brexit MEP Brian Monteith added: “The deep and detailed research by international finance expert Bob Lyddon points very strongly to the claim that the Irish economy is a Celtic Tiger is a complete sham.

“It is built upon a complex web of low corporate taxes supported by tax write-offs and clever legal schemes to ensure that multinationals can reduce their tax liabilities by putting turnover gained from outside Ireland through the Irish economy.

Mr Monteith continued: “It’s deeply unfair to taxpayers and governments of other countries and it is bound to collapse at some point sooner rather than later as it is unsustainable once countries waken up to how they are being ripped-off by the complicit Irish government and its banking institutions.

“The idea that there could ever be Irish unification under such opaque economic conditions that would make the people of Northern Ireland jointly liable for possible massive debts is simply not credible and is being ignored by nationalist parties in the hope it goes away.”

Under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, a border poll should be called by the incumbent Northern Ireland Secretary – currently Chris Heaton-Harris – when he/she believes there is evidence that public opinion in the region has shifted in favour of constitutional change.

Speaking earlier this month, Sinn Fein President Mary Lou McDonald, who is a TD in Ireland’s legislature, the Dail, in Dublin, predicted a border poll on Northern Ireland’s constitutional future will be held before 2030.

Ms McDonald comments expressing confidence of referendums on both sides of the border within six years come amid increased focus on the prospects of reunification.

She told Sky News: “I envisage us having the referendums in this decade.

Asked to clarify if that meant before 2030, she replied: “Yes, and let me say that it is not so far away, so there’s an awful lot of work that needs to be done.”