Rishi Sunak and No10 risk “looking like bottlers” if they do not call an election soon, according to a Conservative insider. The founder of Conservative Home, Tim Montgomerie, revealed that speculation of an election announcement on Monday was gathering speed.
He tweeted: “Rumours of an election announcement on Monday are hitting 1000mph. If they are false, and Downing Street doesn’t reject them soon, the No 10 operators risk looking like bottlers.”
This echoes similar predictions from Nadine Dorries and Tony Blair’s Downing Street communications chief, Alastair Campbell.
Earlier this week, Ms Dorries said: “I’m putting the odds of a general election being called tomorrow or next week at 50 percent.” Mr Campbell also hinted at “mega election rumours” amid claims of an imminent announcement.
It is thought that the move could pre-empt calls for Mr Sunak to go after the May 2 local elections which are set to see the Tories lose hundreds of local council seats.
There are rumours that disgruntled backbenchers could attempt to replace Mr Sunak if Tory mayors Ben Houchen and Andy Street – the party’s most high-profile figures outside Westminster – lose their seats on Thursday.
The mayors of Tees Valley and the West Midlands could both be dumped despite winning huge majorities in 2021.
Downing Street fears that a huge loss on Thursday could prompt more Tory MPs to send letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, in order to trigger a vote.
However, No 10 hopes that recent victories, such as the Rwanda Bill finally receiving Royal Ascent as well as the commitment to raise defence spending to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2030, will help shore up the Prime Minister’s position among his MPs ahead of Thursday.
Conservative peer and polling expert Lord Hayward said that the Tories are on course to lose more than 400 seats at the local elections.
However, he told Channel 4 News that it “will not be a blowout for Labour”, with the party expected to gain between 200 and 250 seats.
The predictions of a Monday announcement may have been dampened by the bombshell defection of Dr Dan Poulter to the Labour Party.
Dr Poulter, who criticised the Conservative’s handling of the NHS, did not inform No10 of his decision ahead of the announcement.
