Tropical cyclone likely brewing in Gulf of Mexico on first day of hurricane season, NHC says

As if on cue, a tropical system is bubbling up in the Gulf of Mexico on the first day of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

The system has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next two days, the National Hurricane Center said.

If it becomes a named storm, which would happen if its sustained winds reach 39 mph, it would become Tropical Storm Arlene.

In a Thursday afternoon update, the hurricane center said, “environmental conditions remain marginally favorable for additional development, and if these trends continue, a short-lived tropical depression or storm is likely to form as soon as this afternoon.”

The hurricane center added that the system is likely to meander over the northeastern Gulf through tonight and begin a slow southward motion on Friday.

By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts south, likely remaining offshore over the Gulf.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary, the hurricane center said.

Forecasts, definitions, preparation:Everything to know about hurricane season 2023.

Hurricane season is underway:Here’s the list of names for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

Heavy rainfall, flooding possible across Florida

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across much of Florida through the weekend, the hurricane center said.

Through Saturday, a general 1-2 inches of rain is likely to fall on the northern part of the Florida Peninsula, with 2-4 inches and locally higher amounts over the southern half, depending on the track and development of the system, according to AccuWeather.

Flash flooding is possible in some areas where areas where thunderstorms stall or move very slowly for an hour or so, Weather.com said.

A flood watch is in effect for portions of Southeast and South Florida until Friday evening, the National Weather Service said. This includes the Miami and Fort Lauderdale metro areas.

Why would Arlene be the second storm of the season?

While the first named storm of the 2023 season will be Arlene, it will actually be the second storm of the season. A system in January was classified in May as a subtropical storm.

Since the classification came during a post analysis, it did not get a name and will be documented as “Unnamed.”

Forecast increases on first day of hurricane season

Top forecasters from Colorado State University slightly increased their forecast Thursday for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. They now predict 15 named storms, of which seven will be hurricanes. That’s up from their previous forecast of 13 and six.