Reform UK could make the difference between a big Labour majority and a hung Parliament, according to new analysis.
Modelling by Labour Together sets out three possible scenarios for the next general election ranging from a landslide victory for Sir Keir Starmer, a working Labour majority and a hung Parliament.
The think tank said a working majority is the most likely outcome but highlighted how Richard Tice’s Reform UK could prove key.
Josh Williams, director of strategy at Labour Together, said: “There is a long way to go between now and the election and, as the old saying goes, there can be many a slip between cup and lip.
“Labour’s lead is undoubtedly wide, a tribute to the extraordinary transformation in the party’s fortunes under Keir Starmer.
“But, a few small shifts in voters’ views and a would-be majority narrows. A collapse in the resurgent Reform party, just like Ukip and the Brexit Party before them, could change the picture entirely. There is no room for complacency.”
The first projection is a 1997-style landslide victory for Labour based on its current 20-point lead in opinion polls.
But the research concluded the scenario is unlikely due to the large number of voters who are currently undecided.
It also raised questions over whether Reform UK, formerly the Brexit Party, would perform as well at an election as in opinion polls and the likelihood of “soft switchers” to Labour who may return to the Tories.
In what the research describes as a “realistic” projection, Labour would win 364 seats and a majority of 78.
The scenario is based on many of the current undecided voters returning to the party they supported at the last election.
A third projection estimates there would be a hung Parliament if support for Reform UK collapses either due to Rishi Sunak delivering on his small boats promise or the party stepping aside for the Tories.
Under the projection, Labour would pick up 312 seats which is 14 short of a majority.
The think tank said it was an unlikely scenario but underlines the significance of the insurgent party.
