CHINA may abandon its “no first-use” policy as it continues to grow its nuclear stockpiles, a stark report has found.
And experts last night warned that the situation will become increasingly destabilising as long as Beijing and Washington DC continued to distrust each other.
The report by Etterretningstjenesten, the Norwegian Intelligence Service (NIS), drew a picture of an increasingly robust China which was “preparing for confrontation with the West on the Taiwan issue“.
Those preparations include a complete modernisation of its armed forces – untested in conflict since the end of its war with Vietnam in 1979 – which is timed for 2027, when the People’s Liberation Army marks its 100th anniversary,
“China seeks to develop high-tech systems that provide asymmetric advantages against an otherwise superior adversary,” says the report, adding that Beijing plans to “equal the West’s military technological dominance by 2035 and surpass the US in selected areas by 2049”.
It will encompass “new domains” of warfare including outer space, digital space, polar layers, underwater, the biological and the cognitive.
Beijing has also steadily been building up its nuclear arsenal. This is an area where , traditionally, it been happy to allow Russia an the US to lead.
According to one recent Pentagon report, China has around 300 warheads and seeks to increase this to 1,000.
New submarines and strategic bombers are also in development, offering China’s nuclear arsenal maximum versatility. Chinese uranium and plutonium plants are being expanded and can be used both to meet civilian power requirements and for arms production.
“To all intents and purposes, the developments seen in the Chinese nuclear weapons programme mean that China has abandoned its minimal deterrence doctrine,“ warned the report.
“They also raise questions regarding Beijing’s no-first-use doctrine for nuclear weapons, which has prevailed thus far.”
Last night Aédán Mordecai, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst for the Sibylline strategic risk group, said: “We live in worrying times. China has really accelerated their build up of nuclear weapons and capacity since Xi has taken charge. This is all being driven by US-China tensions and the lack of trust between both sides. Xi wants China to be seen as an equal of the US.”
