A new poll suggests Keir Starmer’s local elections wipeout and Indian trade deal have gone down badly with voters, showing yet another astonishing surge in support for Reform UK. Find Out Now have discovered that Reform has shot up by 4 points to a whopping 33%, the highest Nigel Farage has ever polled nationally.
Meanwhile Labour is down one point to 20%, leaving them 13 points behind Reform. However the Tories have suffered a major blow, plummeting three points to just 16%. This means they are just one percent more popular than the LibDems (15%), and less than half as popular as Reform.
Plugging the numbers into a seat predictor, it suggests Nigel Farage would be heading to No10 with a landslide majority.
If these numbers were seen in an election, Reform UK would sweep into power with 365 seats, a majority identical to that of Boris Johnson’s in 2019.
Labour would collapse to 97 seats, down 314 seats, while the Tories would be almost entirely wiped out and left with just 23 seats.
Kemi Badenoch would lose her seat, while the party as a whole would be left as just the sixth largest party in the Commons.
Today’s nation-wide poll comes after two others, in Scotland and Wales, suggest Reform is also surging past Labour in their former heartlands.
Responding to today’s Find Out Now poll, Reform deputy leader Richard Tice said: “RECORD REFORM POLL – 33%. Now 17% ahead of disappearing Tories.”
“Vote Reform get Reform. Vote Tory get Labour.”
The findings also appear to support Farage’s argument that his party’s success in the May 1 elections signals the end of Britain’s two-party system – and could “supplant” the Tories as the main opposition to Labour.
Panicked politicians in the country’s two main parties have come under pressure to win back disillusioned voters, including calls for the Government to backtrack on its controversial change to the winter fuel allowance.
Reform’s record polling high puts it three points above the Brexit Party’s best-ever result in 2019, when the Tories also fell by three percentage points after Theresa May resigned, and before Boris Johnson won the leadership election.
The survey also put the Liberal Democrats on track to win a total of 89 seats in the Commons, while the SNP would take 48. Scottish First Minister John Swinney said this week that there was a “very real possibility” that Farage could be the UK’s next Prime Minister, describing it as a “fearful” prospect.
He told the PA News Agency: “I think Labour and the Tories have spent years cosying up to Farage. I have made clear the only way to deal with Farage is to confront him, which is what we will do in Scotland, and to take a different approach.”
A Reform UK spokesperson described the Conservative Party was in “terminal decline” and said Farage’s party had become “the real opposition to Labour in England, Scotland and Wales”.
“The lesson for future elections is simple,” they added. “If you vote Conservative, you will get Labour. By supporting the Conservatives, you split the Reform UK vote. If you vote Reform UK, you get Reform UK.”