A Soviet spacecraft hurtling towards Earth could hit the UK in just three days time, scientists have warned. The out-of-control Cosmos-482, a Venus lander stranded in Earth’s orbit since 1972, had been forecast to make a re-entry between May 8 and May 13.
ESA’s Space Debris Office now predict it will makes its reentry at around 8.12am UK time on Sunday. Scientists watching on do not know where its exact landing site will be, but they have drawn up a potential impact zone area between 52 north and 52 south latitude.
This takes in the south of England and parts of Wales, although the chances are extremely slim. The probe’s robust construction, designed to survive Venus’ harsh atmosphere, means some parts, especially the titanium descent capsule, may reach the surface intact.
Space agencies are closely monitoring its descent, but most forecasts suggest it will likely fall into the ocean. ESA said: “On 10 May, an uncontrolled reentry will take place of the so-called Cosmos-482 descent craft, a Soviet Venera landing capsule that launched 53 years ago.
“It was meant to land on Venus, but its launcher never escaped Earth’s gravity. Now, the descent craft will come down at a point between 52 degrees north and south of the equator. As the reentry comes closer, the predictions will become more precise in the updates.”
Jonathan McDowell, of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, US, said: “It is alarming but not end-of-the-world alarming. It’s like a medium-sized car falling out of the sky.”
The astronomer said as most of the Earth was water and much of the land forecast was uninhabited the chances were it would land safely and the odds of it hitting someone were one in a few thousand.
While “you wouldn’t want it bashing you on the head” he said there was “no need for major concern.”
But it is likely to come down in one piece. Kosmos 482 launched on March 31 1972 as part of a two-pronged mission to Venus.
It and its sister craft were supposed to follow the success of the Venera 7 probe which touched down on Venus in 1970 in what was then the first soft landing on another planet.
In 1972 Venera 8 made it to Venus from where it transmitted data for nearly an hour. But the launch of Kosmos 482 four days later failed.
In March, Elon Musk’s SpaceX Starship plummeted back into Earth’s atmosphere after a failed launch. The wreckage was spotted raining down in Florida.