All climate scenarios predict that the central Arctic Ocean will be largely ice free in summer by 2045, and it is believed that this will lead to China increasing its maritime activity and resource extraction as it opens up new trade routes from Asia to Europe and North America.
He added: “While we believe that it is not in Russia’s interest to start a conventional conflict in the Arctic, accidental escalation is a growing risk in a climate of mutual suspicion between Russia and the West.
“This risk is exacerbated by an increase in Russian malign activity in the High North that falls below the threshold of actual war.
This ranges from GPS jamming and maritime sabotage to cyber-attacks and information warfare, he said, adding; “Our Nordic allies are at the frontline of these activities, but we may be affected as well, so we must remain vigilant and maintain good situational awareness.”
The accession of Finland and Sweden to Nato is a two-edged sword, the report said.
While it has dramatically increased Nato’s footprint in the region, Finland has doubled Nato’s land border with Russia and has transformed what was one just a maritime threat to a land threat as well.
Though the UK is not an Arctic state, it is one of the few non-Arctic states that invests in the military capability to operate in the High North.
Its membership of the Arctic Council is underwritten by its importance as a security partner for its European Arctic allies and its role as a major contributor to polar research. The report said.
Britain already leads the Joint Expeditionary Force, a quick reaction maritime task force intended to complement the work of Nato, which includes Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden – five of which are official Arctic states.
The Royal Marines deploy annually to Northern Norway for winter training and we were pleased to learn that the UK has increased the scale and frequency of cold-weather training and exercises in the High North.
In March 2023, the UK established a new Arctic operations base in Camp Viking in Northern Norway to serve as a hub for Royal Marines Commandos.131 The Minister told us that the number of UK personnel with recent experience of operating in Arctic conditions “will be higher now than at any point since the early 1990s”
In the maritime sphere however, Russia is making investments that the UK cannot match.
Russia already operates deep-diving mini submarines that can work at extreme depths. larger mothership vessels which act as a host both for these deep-diving mini subs and, potentially, a range of unmanned underwater vehicles and surface vessels that can be used for maritime sabotage, such as the Admiral Vladimirsky, which is officially classed as an oceanographic research vessel.
Under last year’s Maritime Doctrine, it aims to develop a new fleet of Arctic-capable surface vessels, port and coastal infrastructure, and deploy autonomous sensor stations and unmanned underwater vehicles.
While Britain has launched two new Multi-Role Ocean Surveillance (MROS) vessels, these are operated by the Royal Fleet Auxiliary.
The report concludes: “The Royal Navy has only one ice-capable patrol ship, and the Royal Air Force’s fleet of maritime patrol aircraft may be insufficient to maintain a constant presence in the High North alongside a long-term deployment to the Indo-Pacific and protection of the nuclear deterrent.
We are concerned that high aspirations worldwide without a clear sense of how the Arctic fits into the UK’s wider global priorities could lead to overstretch. “
