A “tit for tat” border conflict between India and Pakistan exploding into all-out nuclear war should be “every sane person’s deepest fear”, a foreign policy expert has warned. India fired missiles into Pakistani-controlled territory in several locations late on Tuesday night, killing at least 26 people, including a child, in what Pakistan’s leader called an act of war. The country’s military said it struck infrastructure used by militants linked to last month’s massacre of tourists in the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir.
Pakistan then claimed it shot down several Indian fighter jets in retaliation as two planes fell onto villages in India-controlled Kashmir. At least seven civilians were also killed in the region by Pakistani shelling, Indian police and medics said. The nations are two of the world’s nuclear-capable militaries. Prof Antony Glees, Emeritus Professor of Politics, Economics and International Studies at the University of Buckingham, told The Express that the fate of the world could well now be on a knife-edge.
He said: “Everyone knows that there would be no winners if India and Pakistan used nuclear weapons against each other, although it does not stop them from fighting awful conventional wars like Putin’s war against Ukraine. However, tit for tat conflicts can escalate.
“There is no incontrovertible evidence that [Pakistan’s intelligence service] ISI ordered or tolerated the attack. It’s also the case that India has not only struck at terrorist facilities in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir but much more seriously at four targets in the Punjab, that is, Pakistan proper.
“This means Pakistan will have to retaliate, I fear, and the Pakistani claim that India destroyed a mosque is highly significant here.”
Aside from the huge spike in diplomatic tensions between India and Pakistan, Prof Glees warned that the conflict could soon find itself on the international stage – with US President Donald Trump once again keen to be seen as a peacemaker. A situation that the Professor warned may, in fact, make things significantly worse for all involved.
He went on: “Not only has Trump not sorted the two conflicts he promised America and the world he would end with hours in Gaza and Ukraine, but by tearing up the rules-based order that most of the world believed was the best way of managing relations between states, Trump has in effect given the green light to Modi, and indeed to Putin.
“It is possible that Modi may want to emulate the land-grabbing doctrine that Trump clearly believes in (think Canada, think Greenland) – one that Trump has copied off Putin (think Ukraine) and decide to take over Pakistani-administered Kashmir. That would prompt an all-out war, and the loser – probably Pakistan – would then think of a nuclear strike against Delhi.
“That has to be every sane person’s deepest fear. We in Europe don’t want to be roadkill in these tectonic battles between strong and highly dangerous political leaders.”
Tensions have soared between the nuclear-armed neighbours since the attack, which India has blamed Pakistan for backing. Islamabad has denied the accusation.