A horror warning has been issued for Spain after a study delved into the likelihood of an earthquake striking the European country and its potential effects on infrastructure and the population. The research focused on the Mediterranean coast and southern regions of the country to assess the potential impact of a natural disaster of this scale.
In recent weeks, a 6.5 magnitude earthquake struck a region of Colombia, following a 7.5 in Chile and a powerful 7.7 quake recorded in Myanmar. Experts concentrated on historical earthquakes in Alicante and Arenas del Rey-the latter of which struck in 1884 and resulted in 289 and 900 casualties, respectively. Using data collected from these events, researchers employed the PAGER system to simulate the potential impact of an earthquake of similar magnitude in present-day conditions, paying particular attention to high tourist density in these regions.
The study outlines the extent of potential damage, drawing on simulations that considered a range of parameters, including whether the affected area resembles a northern or southern Mediterranean setting.
The results, published in the journal Natural Hazards, are clear: they state that “clearly Spanish society is unprepared for this type of strong event, which has occurred in the recent past and will certainly occur in the future,” according to the research article.
The collected data, based on numerous assumed variables, indicates some influence of tourist overcrowding on fatality numbers, with results being very “discouraging.”
“Currently, Spanish society and administrations are unprepared for such strong events,” concluded the study, warning of “devastating scenarios” that could occur if territorial, urban planning, and tourism policies are not improved.
Researchers ran a series of simulations using varied parameters, including characteristics typical of northern and southern Mediterranean countries.
In the case of the Torrevieja earthquake, both simulated scenarios indicated catastrophic outcomes—described as “severe losses never recorded in Spain”.
Estimated fatalities ranged between 1,000 and 10,000, while economic damage was projected at around 10 percent of the nation’s GDP.
By contrast, simulations for the Arenas del Rey (Granada) earthquake suggest significantly fewer casualties than those recorded in the 1884 event. Current projections range from 100 to 1,000 deaths, largely due to factors such as population decline and the specific timing of the original quake, which occurred on Christmas night when more people were likely indoors.
In both scenarios, the report concluded that “the total resulting losses for Spain would be difficult to manage.
