Vladimir Putin is facing “significant” military challenges that could seriously compromise Russia’s ability to wage its war in Ukraine”, experts have said. An Annual Threat Assessment by the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) concluded that Russia has suffered “significant casualties” in Ukraine and that it must “contend with the poor quality of its new recruits”. US European Command Commander and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, also stated yesterday that Putin’s forces have lost more than 4,000 tanks, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its daily report on the conflict.
Cavoli also detailed that Russia started the war with a total of 13,000 tanks, and are now “starting to approach near the end” of the viable tanks in storage. The general then noted that Russia has expanded its capability to produce shells, cruise missiles, and first-person view (FPV) drones, adding that it is preparing either to continue offensive operations in Ukraine or to launch a future campaign against a NATO member state.
The ISW reported: “Cavoli assessed that Russia will be able to replace the significant personnel losses incurred in Ukraine ahead of a future conflict in Europe but noted that Russia’s ability to replace materiel losses is contingent on Ukraine’s ability to inflict greater losses.”
It added: “The United States can leverage Russian vulnerabilities and achieve a stronger negotiating position by continuing — or increasing — military aid to Ukraine such that Ukrainian forces can continue to inflict significant manpower and materiel losses on Russia.”
It comes as reports suggest that Putin is prepared to keep up his invasion if he cannot get what he wants from a peace deal with the US.
The ISW added: “Russia seeks to leverage ongoing ceasefire and future peace negotiations to seize large amounts of territory in Ukraine and install a pro-Russian puppet government in Kyiv but will likely continue military operations in Ukraine if the Kremlin is unable to achieve a full Ukrainian surrender through diplomacy.”
Bloomberg reported yesterday, citing sources in Moscow familiar with the matter, that the Kremlin is “counting on US President Donald Trump to deliver an acceptable peace deal in Ukraine,” but is prepared to continue the war if it is not able to secure its goals through negotiations with US officials.
