As Taiwan approaches its presidential election on Saturday, tensions are rising, with China viewing it as a choice between war and peace. The island nation, considered a breakaway province by China, faces the threat of forceful annexation.
Speaking to Express.co.uk, Darren Spinck, Associate Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, emphasised the critical importance of maintaining the delicate balance in cross-Strait relations between China and Taiwan. Spinck expressed concerns over potential disruptions to the “fragile status quo,” highlighting the severe consequences such a scenario could have on the global economy.
“As global crises worsen from Ukraine to Israel, Washington and London must pursue policies aimed at maintaining the status quo in cross-Strait relations, including deterring Beijing from pursuing forced reunification or Taipei from unilateral independence,” Spinck said.
He went on to underscore the potential catastrophic impact, adding: “Any disruption in this fragile status quo would have a ruinous impact on the global economy, leading to supply chain disruptions, upended sea and air trade routes, and the contraction of the global economy by as much as $10 trillion according to a recent study.”
Spinck warned that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) could gain hegemonic control over the entire Indo-Pacific region should its military succeed in forcing reunification. He pointed out that China’s navy might extend its reach past the First Island Chain, causing concern among US/UK partners and potentially jeopardising existing security commitments.
“Some challenge from Beijing to the fragile cross-Strait status quo between China and Taiwan should be anticipated following the election,” Spinck predicted. He highlighted the leading position of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s candidate, William Lai, in public opinion polls, despite being labeled a “troublemaker” by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials.
Ensuring deterrence against forced reunification, Spinck argued, demands a comprehensive strategy encompassing both economic and defence policies.
He stressed the need for Washington to provide Taiwan with the necessary defence capabilities, conduct naval exercises in the Indo-Pacific, encourage increased defence spending by Taipei, mitigate commercial dependencies to minimise Beijing’s economic leverage, and secure supply chains through private-sector-funded infrastructure development.
The election features Vice President Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party against candidates from the Nationalist Party and the Taiwan People’s Party.
The US, a strong supporter of Taiwan, plans to send an unofficial delegation following the election. However, this move could strain already fragile ties between Washington and Beijing. Alongside the geopolitical tensions, the election is crucial for addressing domestic issues such as economic concerns, expensive housing, and unemployment.
