Yemen’s Houthis are aligned with Iran (Image: Getty)
The conflict between Israel and Hamas has the potential to “spillover” across the region, a UK-based expert in the Middle East has warned.
Speaking in advance of Rishi Sunak’s decision to greenlight airstrikes on Yemen, Dr Tobias Borck explained the West has a vested interest in framing the ongoing tensions in the Red Sea as about security, regardless of attempts by Houthi militants to portray it as another theatre of the ongoing war.
Following the terror attacks of October 7 which killed roughly 1,200 people, Israel launched a campaign of airstrikes against Hamas before launching a ground offensive into Gaza, resulting in the deaths of thousands more.
More recently, major shipping lines and oil giant BP announced they were diverting vessels around southern Africa, adding time and costs to journeys, rather than risk the Red Sea in response to a series of drone attacks by the Yemen-based, Iran-aligned Houthis.
Elsewhere, an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman was boarded by “armed unauthorised persons” in military uniforms and masks, with suspicion immediately falling on Iran.
READ MORE: UK prepares to strike Houthi rebels in Yemen as Sunak holds Cabinet call
A pro-Palestinian demonstration in Yemen (Image: Getty)
Speaking earlier this week, Dr Borck, Senior Research Fellow in Middle East Security at RUSI, told Express.co.uk: “The danger that what is happening in Gaza will continue to have a destabilising spillover effect across the region remains very live.
“There are multiple theatres in which that instability, potential conflict and so on, might become apparent. The risk of a war between Israel and Hezbollah remains very live.”
Dr Borck explained: “We are in a situation when up to 200,000 Israelis have been evacuated from towns near the northern border.
“They are still living in hotels and on sofas etc. They eventually have to go back but if you evacuate people, as a government, you need to make a pretty compelling case why suddenly it’s different, and therefore you can go back home.
“So there’s a security dilemma for the Israeli government because if the argument was you have to leave your towns, because there is an armed militia across the border that is committed to the destruction of the state of Israel, Hezbollah then you can only send them back once you’ve dealt with that problem.
Grant Shapps says ‘enough is enough’ after Houthi attacks
A tanker moves through the Red Sea Strait (Image: Getty)
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“And I think one of the drivers for continued conflict on that border.”
With specific reference to the Red Sea, the key strategic waterway which links the Mediterranean and the oil-rich Arab states, Dr Borck continued: “What complicates the response to it somewhat, is that you have the Houthis declaring that what they are doing in the Red Sea is all about Israel.
“Yesterday we saw a statement by a Houthi spokesperson claiming that actually shipping through the Red Sea is perfectly safe as long as it’s not to Israel.
“Now, the Houthis have demonstrated that they are not very good at identifying which ships are going to Israel and which are not, which means that international shipping can’t rely on the Houthis – in fact I don’t think anyone should rely on the Houthis.
“But they are making it all about this and claim that they are part of the great regional fight against Israel, that’s the Houthi argument.”
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps (Image: Getty)
By contrast, Western nations had a vested interest in portraying the problems as being related to piracy, akin to the issues witnessed off the coast of Somalia in the 2000s, Dr Borck suggested.
He added: “That means that any action to provide security in the Red Sea is not about fighting against a group that is committed to the fight against Israel, but it’s actually just about providing security in one of the world’s most important waterways.”
Dr Borck suggested “99 percent” of nations worldwide had a very strong interest in ensuring maritime security in the Red Sea.
He said: “On that front, everyone is aligned with the sort of objective of stopping the Houthis from doing what they’re doing.
“The problem is the political framing of it, which is why the US are doing it, which is also why the US are making it pretty clear to Israel that they don’t want Israel to take action against the Houthis and saying, ‘let us take care of this’.
“Which is why the Brits are of course going to join the Americans and in and taking care of it eventually, and so on.
“So it’s a tricky thing, because it is connected. But there’s actually quite a strong political interest in trying to disentangle that.”
“If you’re if you’re in Washington or London, you’d much rather do a military operation that is about anti-piracy and maritime security than another Western war in the Middle East?”
Speaking earlier this week, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said the UK and Western allies could take action against the Houthis if attacks in the Red Sea continued.
He told Sky News: “Be in no doubt at all Iran is guiding what is happening there in the Red Sea, providing them not just with equipment to carry out those attacks but also often with the eyes and ears to allow those attacks to happen.
“We must be clear with the Houthis, that this has to stop and that is my simple message to them today and watch this space.”
