Divided parties don’t win elections, warns Rishi Sunak. History shows it, he adds. We must unite, he begs. He’s right of course. We all remember John Major in 1997. It’s taken me that long to forget. But some Tory MPs would actually prefer to be in opposition.
When enough of them relish that prospect, why, we might ask, should any Tory supporters turn out and vote? Why not stay home? Well, many of them will.
But these MPs don’t care. And here’s their logic: only in opposition can the battle for the soul of the Right be fought, to the bitter, bloody end. Only in opposition can we, as last, become a proper conservative party, not this squalid pale imitation.
Only in opposition can we root out the Tory Left, exit the ECHR, re-establish our independence, turn the boats back, enact a one-in-one out immigration policy, cut expenditure, taxes and borrowing, get some growth, and cancel all this diversity and inclusion garbage that leads, giving one of many mad examples, to rapists being sent to women’s prisons. Only in opposition can we be pure. And if that means Reform rather than Conservative, so be it.
I have some sympathy. Give me a choice between this true-blue agenda and anything proposed by Labour’s Sir Flip Flopalot, and I’d choose the former before you could wave the Red Flag.
Yet, we should be careful what we wish for. It is arguably worth five years of Flopalot if, come 2029, the right marches back into power, this time united behind a proper no-nonsense conservative agenda.
But it won’t be that simple. Labour’s 1997 landslide led not to one term in government, but three. It led not to five years in power, but 13, including an invasion of Iraq, opening the floodgates to free movement from the EU, a splurge of expenditure leaving us defenceless against the 2008-09 crash, more and more European integration and disastrously lopsided devolution. Fancy more of that, anyone on the right?
Already, the polls are pointing towards a landslide similar to Blair’s in ‘97. One this week predicted that the Tories would be reduced to a rump of 169 seats with Labour over the horizon on 385. Anyone who thinks that kind of massacre can simply be reversed in 2029 needs help.
And just imagine 13 years of Flopalot, taking us right the way through to 2037. Brexit? Forget it. The Nanny State? You betcha. Even more immigration, legal or not? Of course. The Big Woke State, with tentacles stretching further into our lives than ever before? With venom. And if you believe Flopalot will somehow fix the economy, let alone achieve “the highest growth in the G7”, you’ve never lived through a Labour government.
Oh yes, Tory MPs relishing opposition should be careful what they wish for.
Yet this calamity now seems inevitable. In fact, only one thing can prevent it: a united Right. But we might as well be whistling in the wind. Telling the Right to unite is a game for mugs, and there is scant evidence that Sunak has what it takes to reach out and embrace. That’s why his party faces maximum peril. At least in 1997 there was a way back, albeit along an arduous 13-year road. This time? The Conservative Party could die.
Nothing lasts forever, so I don’t lose sleep over that prospect, especially if it’s replaced by a party with proper, pure conservative beliefs that’s less inclined to tear itself to shreds. But 13 years of big-state Flopalot? Three terms of Labour’s wonky wokery? That’s a high price for conservative purity.
