When it comes to the Jonathan Taylor situation, the Indianapolis Colts are playing with fire.
Before I explain that #ForTheShoe, let me admit from the outset that I’m the same guy who made the case a week ago that star running backs are not getting paid because they’ve provided ample evidence recently that they’re not worth the money – whether due to their susceptibility to injuries, current inability to win Super Bowls or the apparent success teams can have by swapping them out like sparkplugs.
But this standoff with Taylor feels more treacherous.
In a nutshell, if you’re just catching up, the 2021 All-Pro and NFL rushing champion is eligible for an extension as he heads into the final year of his rookie contract. However Colts owner Jim Irsay is presently unwilling to pay or deal the 24-year-old and held a bizarre news conference to disclose his rationale. Taylor, a second-round draft pick in 2020, is scheduled to earn $4.3 million this season – low even by the standards of a depressed RB wage scale. His agent and Irsay have traded barbs on social media, and Taylor requested a trade after a meeting with the owner over the weekend.
To briefly defend the Colts, it makes little sense to part with a swift, powerful, smart runner who has averaged 5.1 yards per carry and nearly 1,300 rushing yards per season thus far in his career. And they surely want to see how Taylor looks in practice after his 2022 season was cut short by a high ankle sprain, which necessitated offseason surgery. And that postseason RB bugaboo exists, Indy yet to win a playoff game with Taylor while failing to qualify during his monster 2021 season (league-high 2,171 yards and 20 TDs from scrimmage) after he ran for 77 yards but no TDs in a season-ending 26-11 loss at Jacksonville – the lowly Jags drafted first overall the following spring – that was deservedly pinned on then-QB Carson Wentz.
But it’s probably dangerously short-sighted if the Colts focus there. They’d be wise to consider these intermediate and longer-term considerations:
Indianapolis’ lack of RB depth
With Taylor currently on the physically unable to perform list and backup Zack Moss in jeopardy of missing the start of the regular season after breaking his forearm, Indy is rolling with third-stringer Deon Jackson and even more unproven players like Evan Hull, Jake Funk and Zavier Scott in the backfield. Yes, it’s training camp and premature to panic. But unless Taylor gets back on the field this month, this offense will be suffering from a major lack of continuity going into Week 1.
A damaging message?
Though Taylor is on the PUP list, there have been rumblings he might land on the “non-football injury list” due to a back problem he sustained while training away from the team. Taylor has denied any issues with his back. Going onto the NFI would allow the Colts, per the collective bargaining agreement, to withhold Taylor’s salary. Were that to occur, the best-case scenario is that such a seemingly ruthless tactic might facilitate a resolution with him. But such a prospective course could also blow up in the front office’s face, likely to invite intense scrutiny from the league and NFL Players Association while almost certain to anger players in this locker room and other ones.
A more damaging message?
Since coming to Indianapolis in 2017, GM Chris Ballard has consistently built his roster with a strategy of drafting, developing and re-signing players as an organizational tenet. Taylor was on the periphery of the MVP conservation two years ago and would is the kind of cornerstone Ballard would typically retain – though this case is complicated by Irsay’s direct involvement. But if the Colts fail to reward the guy who’s probably been their best performer over the past three years – and they have the salary cap space now (and in the future) to get a deal done – what does it say to other players mulling their future in the Circle City?
Impact on the rookies …
… specifically first-year coach Shane Steichen and QB Anthony Richardson, the No. 4 pick of the 2023 draft. After years of cycling declining veterans under center, following QB Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement four years ago, the Colts finally invested in a young passing prospect – fully aware of the inherent growing pains. Steichen, instrumental in transforming multi-talented Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts into a superstar, seemed like an ideal mentor for Richardson – who may have an even better skill set but not nearly Hurts’ collegiate experience with just 13 starts at Florida.
Taylor’s ability to move the chains, even when defenses key on him, projected as an optimal way of reducing the demands and pressure on Richardson as he transitions to the NFL. But if opening day arrives with Steichen forced to put Jackson into the lineup, he may as well also start retread QB Gardner Minshew II and put Richardson – and the Colts writ large – on pause rather than expose him to serious physical and mental setbacks in an offense that probably wouldn’t qualify as below average minus Taylor.
This is a franchise that had future Hall of Fame RB Marshall Faulk on hand when Peyton Manning was drafted in 1998, then drafted future HOF RB Edgerrin James. Both were gone by the time Manning – and he was far more pro-ready than Richardson when entering the league – finally won the Super Bowl, but who’s to say he would have ever reached the mountain top without Faulk and James to support him early on? Luck, a generational prospect like Manning, ultimately didn’t have the same career due to his litany of injuries. And he didn’t have sidekicks the caliber of Faulk or James – perhaps part of Luck’s problem – yet the organization did invest heavily to have players like Donald Brown, Trent Richardson and Frank Gore to help him.
There’s probably nothing more crucial occurring in Indianapolis than Richardson’s growth. And whether or not Taylor ultimately gets a ring or plays well enough to earn a third contract in Indy, his value – in terms of how it could impact Richardson’s trajectory – might be summed up in one word: Priceless.
So maybe bury the hatchet and pay him?
Where to trade Taylor?
However if Irsay, Ballard and Steichen take all of that into account – not to mention Taylor’s status as a fan favorite and upstanding citizen – and still decide to let him go, they should at least be sifting through competitive trade offers. The league’s other 31 teams would be wise to gauge Taylor’s availability, but keep an eye on these six, which should be among serious suitors if the Wisconsin product hits the block:
Chicago Bears: No team currently has more cap space (more than $28 million, per Over The Cap) or perhaps a more glaring need at tailback. Adding Taylor would surely limit QB Justin Fields’ downfield forays while reducing the defensive attention on the third-year passer. And few can appreciate Taylor’s capabilities as much as Chicago HC Matt Eberflus, the defensive coordinator in Indianapolis in 2020 and 2021, when he had a bird’s-eye view of his ability to dominate a game. Maybe such a move would be an overreach for a Bears team that feels like it’s still a year or two away from serious contention. And yet, given how the NFC currently projects, he’s the caliber of player who could bring a wild card, or perhaps even an NFC North crown, in 2023.
Dallas Cowboys: HC Mike McCarthy has vowed to “run the damn ball” after assuming offensive play-calling duties. But how feasible is that with franchise-tagged Tony Pollard, who’s better deployed against light boxes and as a receiver, and a bunch of unproven backs? Yes, QB Dak Prescott and WR CeeDee Lamb will soon need extensions, six-time All-Pro RG Zack Martin is demanding one, pronto, and LB Micah Parsons will become eligible next offseason. But Taylor would provide a heckuva a 1-2 punch in the short run and could really boost Dallas’ viability in a seemingly weak NFC. Of course acquiring Taylor – if any team obtains his services – would presume a new contract as part of the transaction, and Dallas has nearly $20 million in cap space right now to make it happen. Such a move would render Pollard a lame duck.
Los Angeles Chargers: They employ the Cowboys’ former offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, and bringing in Taylor would give the Bolts a thunder-and-lightning combo (with RB Austin Ekeler) similar to what Moore used so successfully with Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas. Like Pollard, Ekeler is headed for free agency in 2024. But with Justin Herbert’s extension banked, GM Tom Telesco can transition to assessing roster-building options around his franchise quarterback. Taylor could be one.
Los Angeles Rams: They haven’t had anyone rush for as much as 850 yards since 2018, when Todd Gurley did it for the NFC champs – even if that’s a cautionary tale that hits too close to home given how little the Rams ultimately got after making him the league’s highest-paid back. And yet, at a time when the salary cap is expanding, Taylor probably still won’t command a deal averaging more than $14 million – as Gurley did. And though it’s perfectly legitimate to argue that the Rams, never afraid to trade draft capital, need defensive reinforcements more than Taylor, bringing him in could be an elegant way to boost this offense’s production while reducing the stress on 35-year-old QB Matthew Stafford’s arm.
New England Patriots: A team that appears to have fallen behind its AFC East foes from a talent perspective has been steadily brining in free agents RBs like Elliott, Leonard Fournette and Darrell Henderson for visits. And, yes, RB Rhamondre Stevenson seems like New England’s best offensive weapon coming off his first 1,000-yard season. However it’s worth noting he seemed to wear down significantly in 2022, when one-third of his production was concentrated into two games. Adding Taylor would enable Stevenson to revert to a change-of-pace role, give QB Mac Jones and the passing game better spacing … and maybe provide the Patriots a unique – and needed – offensive identity that could exploit a league routinely deploying defenses in base nickel alignments.
New York Jets: May as well ponder the NYJ given their current state of affairs. Trading for Taylor would require a bigger investment than, say, simply signing free agent RB Dalvin Cook, who visited New York last weekend. And maybe acquiring and paying Taylor would be too much a luxury given RB Breece Hall’s rookie contract runs another three years. But the Jets are clearly pushing their resources toward a long-sought Lombardi Trophy, Hall remains on the PUP list as his recovery from ACL surgery continues, and QB Aaron Rodgers has provided his new team unique financial flexibility after restructuring his contract. Rule out anything here at your peril.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis.
