WASHINGTON – So what comes first: a Donald Trump criminal trial or Election Day?
Right now, many legal analysts believe Trump will face at least one jury of his peers before the general election of Nov. 5, 2024 – but maybe not before Republican primary voters decide who will get their party’s presidential nomination, a prize that could be claimed as early as March.
However it works out, Trump and his attorneys have begun the delay strategy by asking a federal judge to push back – indefinitely – a trial on federal obstruction of justice charges involving classified documents.
One reason, Trump’s legal team said: The presidential election.
“This undertaking requires a tremendous amount of time and energy, and that effort will continue until the election on November 5, 2024,” Trump’s attorneys said in a motion.
Expect similar arguments in the future from Trump, who also faces a trial in New York state next year regarding hush money payments.
The former president could also be looking at two other trials related to efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss to President Joe Biden. He may also seek to delay a January civil trial from writer E. Jean Carroll, who has alleged Trump sexually assaulted her in the 1990s.
‘Gamesmanship’
Trump and his legal team can file a flurry of pre-trial motions and appeals of pre-trial rulings, attorneys said, all designed to delay the dates of actual trials that would feature Trump sitting in court rather than speaking on the campaign trail.
“There’s going to be a lot of gamesmanship,” said Ty Cobb, a defense attorney and former White House Special Counsel for Trump. “There is a lot of room for mischief.”
Whether Trump can delay things until after the general election remains to be seen.
Cobb said pre-trial maneuvering “will definitely slow things down,” but “doesn’t necessarily have to slow things down in perpetuity.”
Election interference?
Attorneys and aides to other candidates have long assumed Trump would try to use his campaign as a shield for his legal troubles, and hope that his election – or the election of another Republican – would lead to dismissals of the cases against him.
Trump and his lawyers have not discussed their strategy publicly; they have called the investigations politically motivated and said they all should be shut down.
“This is planned Election Interference of the highest magnitude,” Trump shared on Truth Social Wednesday.
First test: The documents case
Trump’s delay strategy gets its first test in Florida, site of the classified documents trial.
U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee who initially scheduled the documents trial for mid-August, is considering Trump’s request to delay it indefinitely.
The Justice Department has proposed a trial in December, saying they need the time to determine what kinds of classified information can and should be disclosed in open court.
In their filing, Trump’s lawyers said December does not give them “adequate time” to prepare. They added that “President Trump is running for President of the United States and is currently the likely Republican Party nominee.”
Indeed, according to polls, the indictments have fueled a rise in support for Trump among Republican voters, though independent voters are more skeptical of his candidacy.
A New York trial in March?
The New York state trial involving hush money is scheduled for late March. Trump has noted that the scheduled start date is “right in the middle of primary season,” although the question of who will be the nominee could well be decided by then.
The GOP nomination process begins Jan. 15 with the Iowa caucuses. The month-and-a-half after that features primaries in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
A “Super Tuesday” set of primaries in more than a dozen states is set for March 5. That could leave a Republican nominee with an insurmountable lead in convention delegates.
It also sets up the prospect of a presumptive nominee sitting in a criminal courtroom and subject to conviction and a prison sentence.
Trump is likely to seek a delay of the New York trial when the time comes. He has constantly disputed the authority of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and Judge Juan Merchan, and claimed they have no right to conduct the case against him.
In late March of this year, a New York grand jury indicted Trump on charges of falsifying business records to cover up hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels. The indictment said Trump bought her silence about their relationship right before the 2016 election, so those payments amounted to illegal campaign spending.
Trump has pleaded innocent and denounced the New York prosecution as politically motivated.
Trump-Carroll: A civil action
Trump also faces a possible civil trial in January, though he would not be required to attend in person.
Carroll, who won a $5 million judgement against Trump after a jury in May found him liable for sex abuse and defamation, has a second defamation trial over verbal attacks he made during his years as president.
The trial is currently scheduled for Jan. 15 − the same day as the Iowa caucuses.
Trump may also seek to delay that proceeding, in part of questions about his legal representation. The Justice Department has reversed its previous position and said it would not defend Trump in this case because the comments in question did not involve his duties as president.
Trump did not attend the first civil trial with Carroll, and presumably would not have to attend a second one.
Two more trials
Beyond hush money and classified materials, Trump faces the possibilities of indictments in Atlanta and Washington, D.C..
Both cases involve efforts to overturn Trump’s loss of the 2020 election to Biden. The Atlanta investigation covers actions in Georgia, while a separate federal probe focuses on Trump-inspired activity in several states.
Both could be complicated cases, with pre-trial disputes that could push back trials for months.
Some legal analysts said Trump has limited ability to delay trials for long periods of time. They also said voters are entitled to know Trump’s legal standing before deciding whether to support him.
“At a minimum, the cases need to be adjudicated before the Republican convention,” said Norman Eisen, a senior fellow at The Brookings Institution who has done legal analyses of the Trump investigations.
The GOP convention in Milwaukee is scheduled for July 15-18, 2024.
Bradley P. Moss, an attorney who specializes in national security matters, said he expects Trump to “make every effort he can to avoid facing trial before the election,” especially in the cases that could involve prison time.
Total success, he said, is unlikely.
“Mr. Trump will absolutely be on trial in some form or another during the campaign,” Moss said.
