It is being described by some Tory MPs as “the kamikaze option” but it seems that a general election on May 2 is still a real possibility despite Labour’s massive lead in the polls.
But according to well-placed Conservative sources, there is a plan to make a May 2 election work as possibly “the best and only option” to save the Tories from a historically disastrous defeat and even pull off a miraculous victory.
It all starts this week when Jeremy Hunt gets on to his feet to deliver the Budget and what it contains.
There is now serious speculation that the Chancellor will shock his own party and the nation with what he is preparing to deliver on Wednesday, after sounding cautious and playing down expectations for months.
A senior Tory source told Express.co.uk: “There will be big tax cuts, big income tax cuts. They [the party leadership] believe it will give them a 10-point boost in the polls in two weeks.”
The timing of two weeks is crucial. The Budget is on March 6 and the fortnight takes them to March 20 just two days before the last day that Rishi Sunak can go to the King and ask Parliament to be dissolved to hold an election on May 2.
If he pulls it off then it could be one of the boldest moves in British political history and one which brings about a more astonishing turnaround than Sir John Major’s unexpected victory in 1992 against Neil Kinnock.
Opinion though is divided within the Conservatives on the issue.
Those who think it will be an autumn election in October/November still believe that to be “the safe option”.
One MP said: “He needs time to turn the polls around.”
And an autumn election is still rightly the bookie’s favourite currently.
But the weakness of both Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer’s respective positions has fuelled speculation of a May election.
After the civil war in the Conservatives was fuelled by the controversial suspension of Lee Anderson last week, one Tory insider said: “I am not sure Sunak can hold the party together by the autumn. He needs an election to bring everyone together or he could still be facing a vote of confidence in his leadership. People are really unhappy.”
Then there is the view that the last few weeks have exposed Labour and Starmer’s leadership, not least the debacle where they had to disavow their own anti-Semitic candidate in the Rochdale by-election.
One MP said: “Starmer is weak, he is vulnerable. He does not have control of the extremists in his party and he no longer has any policies to fight on. This poll lead [for Labour] is soft.”
And that is where the Budget matters.
As one Tory noted: “If we go in on a platform of big tax cuts it provides clear blue water between us and Labour. Labour will have to explain why they are putting people’s taxes up again.
“Added to that the tax cuts will be fresh in people’s pay packets in April not long before May so there will still be a good feeling about them at that point which might not be the case in October.”
Starmer dropping his £28billion a year green deal plan has left the party without a serious economic offer which would also be part of the calculation.
But there are negative reasons to go early – not least the small boats.
As one MP put it: “We will not stop the small boats by the summer. If we wait until autumn for the election we will have had weeks of bad headlines about small boats coming over.
“We also have the prospect of the Rwanda plan working in time in terms of flights going over and that will give us differentiation with Labour.”
At the moment it is largely speculation but if Hunt delivers on Wednesday then a May election becomes a serious option and could in effect be plan A if the polls do turn as the Tories expect them to. This coming week will be the make-or-break week for Sunak and his Premiership.
