Are shootings really 'out of control'? US gun violence statistics to know this July 4th

The United States has witnessed five mass shootings each Independence Day on average over the past decade — more than on any other day of the year.

In that time, there have been more than 50 shootings in which four or more people were hit by gunfire on July Fourth, according to an analysis of Gun Violence Archive data by researcher James Alan Fox of Northeastern University in Boston.

Last year, a gunman armed with a semiautomatic rifle opened fire on a Fourth of July parade from a rooftop, killing seven people and wounding nearly 50 others in Highland Park, Illinois. The community plans to hold a remembrance ceremony and walk the parade route Tuesday − a subdued march without floats or performers.

The holiday this year comes as the nation is grappling with historically elevated levels of gun violence, which surged during the coronavirus pandemic. Seven out of 10 Americans say crime is “out of control” in the United States, according to a June USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll of 1,000 residents.

While early data suggests overall firearm homicides may finally be starting to decline again, researchers are documenting an alarming acceleration of mass shootings and mass killings, frequent episodes of gunfire on school grounds and increasing incidents of armed robberies, carjackings and road rage in many cities.

Recent firearm homicide, suicide rates highest since ’90s

Firearm homicide rates in the United States have soared in recent years, following a sharp increase that began around 2015, said Andrew Morral, director of the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research at the RAND Corporation.

“As a result, the U.S. is experiencing firearm homicide rates we haven’t seen since the early 1990s during the crack cocaine epidemic,” he said. “At the same time, firearm suicides have been increasing for the last 15 years and are now at a level higher than we have seen in more than 50 years.”

In 2020, there was a rapid increase in fatal gun violence, said Daniel Webster, director of the Center for Gun Violence Prevention and Policy at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. He noted the hostile political environment at the time and widespread societal disruptions of the pandemic and high-profile acts of police violence, which heightened distrust in law enforcement officers and sparked nationwide racial justice protests.

In 2021, for the second straight year, gun deaths reached the highest number ever recorded – nearly 49,000, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Gun violence was the leading cause of death for children and teens and accounted for more than half of all deaths of Black teens.

Newer information suggests shootings may be decreasing: Partial, provisional CDC data shows gun homicide rates fell in 2022. So far this year, the nonprofit Gun Violence Archive has documented a 5% decrease in gun violence deaths and injuries, said Mark Bryant, executive director.

At the same time, other types of gun violence appear to be increasing.

Shootings, guns on school grounds at record highs

Incidents of gunfire and brandishing on school grounds soared in 2021 and reached an all-time high in 2022, according to the K-12 School Shooting Database. The database, which goes back to 1966, documents any time a gun is fired or brandished or a bullet hits school property, regardless of the number of victims, time, day or reason.

Lead researcher David Riedman said he’s seeing a trend in arguments escalating into shootings outside of school buildings and at dismissal and sporting events – times when “few schools have an emergency plan.” While many schools are investing in fortifying building entrances and classrooms, only five of more than 300 shootings on school campuses last school year happened inside a classroom, he said.

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Mass shootings and mass killings accelerate

There have been more than 300 mass shootings in which four or more victims were hit by gunfire in 2023, up 14% year over year, according to the Gun Violence Archive. Mass shootings are typically more frequent over the summer, and Bryant said he fears the nation could see a record-high number of mass shootings this year.

Mass killings – which include mass shootings in which four or more victims are killed – are also accelerating. Halfway through 2023, the nation has seen more mass killings at this point in the year than in any other year since at least 2006, according to a mass killings database by USA TODAY, The Associated Press and Northeastern University.

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Particularly troubling is the number of mass killings in a public place. In a given year, the nation typically sees six public mass shootings, and the most the country has ever witnessed was 10 in a year, according to Fox, a professor at Northeastern University who has studied mass killings for 40 years. This year, there have already been seven.

What’s causing the gun violence trends?

Researchers have put forward a number of theories to explain the trends in gun violence. Some point to issues of mental health, disengaged law enforcement, increasing gun ownership, more permissive gun laws or a general growing “aggressiveness” in society.

Webster said the trends correlate with more guns in more places, less trust in government and greater cultural hostility. The country witnessed a historic increase in gun purchases at the beginning of the pandemic, and there’s also been an increase in gun carrying outside the home, he said.

Morral noted some researchers attribute the trends in suicide rates to a wider set of “deaths of despair” tied to widening economic inequality, wage stagnation and other types of economic insecurity associated with globalization.

What can the US do about gun violence?

Researchers point to an array of possible solutions. Red flag laws, waiting periods, background checks along with permit-to-purchase requirements and minimum age requirements have been shown to reduce some forms of gun violence, and evidence shows strong public support for many of these policies, said Ali Rowhani-Rahbar, interim director of the Firearm Injury and Policy Research Program at the University of Washington in Seattle.

Rowhani-Rahbar also noted the importance of investments in community services, including community violence intervention programs, and secure firearm storage to reduce the risk of both unintentional firearm deaths and suicides among youth.

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