Donald Trump is considering escalating the trade conflict with China if he secures a second term in the White House, imposing a 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports.
On the other hand, President Biden is planning to enact a series of restrictions aimed at preventing China from accessing crucial American industries such as electronics and semiconductors, with the goal of stemming the outflow of American funds to China.
Biden’s strategy marks a departure from the previous tit-for-tat tariffs and aggressive tactics, shifting towards technology restrictions and investment limitations.
Despite differences between Democrats and Republicans, analysts anticipate a continuation of Washington’s tough stance towards Beijing, regardless of whether Biden or former President Donald Trump wins another term.
Joshua Meltzer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said: “I think the direction of pressure in Washington is absolutely in one direction, which is more hawkishness.
“There is currently congressional pressure to do more.”
The Biden administration has largely maintained Trump-era tariffs, rolled out export control restrictions to curtail Beijing’s ability to buy and make certain high-end chips, and unveiled an order to curb outbound investments to China.
With citizen concerns over trade, business and manufacturing cutting across party lines, the preferred degree of toughness on China tends to be a policy rather than partisan divide, said Jamieson Greer, partner at law firm King & Spalding.
According to Jamieson Greer, a partner at the law firm King & Spalding and former chief of staff to the U.S. Trade Representative during the Trump administration, there are two main perspectives in Washington regarding China.
One views China as an existential threat justifying strong protection measures, and the other cautious about overestimating the threat and preferring less aggressive economic measures.
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Experts agree that a second term for either Biden or Trump would lead to policy divergences.
While the Biden administration does not anticipate reaching a comprehensive deal with China, focusing instead on adjusting to the reality of China and rallying allies, the Trump administration aimed to leverage US power to compel China to change its behavior, as evidenced by the Phase One trade agreement.
A second Trump administration might involve higher tariffs on Chinese goods, potentially triggering Chinese retaliation and disrupting trade between the world’s two largest economies.
In contrast, a second Biden administration is expected to maintain existing measures on China while pursuing narrower and more focused approaches in future actions.
