Sudan’s bloody civil war has entered its eighth month with fighting the military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Force tearing the country apart forcing millions to become refugees.
Humanitarian workers in the region have expressed fears the brutal civil war could spiral into wider conflict threatening tens of millions across a region already plagued by coups, terrorism and conflicts.
The International Rescue Committee (IRC) has released its annual Emergency Watchlist, which identifies the twenty countries most vulnerable to escalating humanitarian crises in 2024. Sudan, the occupied Palestinian territory, and South Sudan top the list.
Sudan, which saw conflict erupt in April 2023, takes the top spot on the Emergency Watchlist this year, a significant shift from its absence from the top ten last year.
Sudan currently has 25 million people in dire humanitarian need, with 6 million already displaced, according to the IRC report
“We have seen it’s become very difficult to reach the vulnerable communities. There is insufficient food and access to health and over time we have started to see the spread of diseases such as cholera and malnutrition to children.”
Should the humanitarian crisis continue to worsen, Mogane told the Express: “Our greatest fear is that the trend continues in that direction.”
She warned: “We will see increasing amount of deaths, we would see increasing migrations into countries that are struggling even to accommodate their own migrants.”
The IRC has warned that Sudan’s conflict has the potential to spark a regional crisis. Neighbouring Chad will begin 2024 with a fragile political transition marked by conflicts throughout the country and persistent economic and climate challenges exacerbating an ongoing humanitarian crisis.
The two countries’ intertwined political and cultural ties are leading to fears that continued conflict in Sudan could lead to instability and unrest in Chad.
Rising violence and strained relations between Ethiopia and Sudan also raise the possibility of a wider conflict.
The Ethiopian government has only recently emerged from a devastating conflict with the TPLF which has brought the troubled Tigray region relative peace since November 2022.
Over 90,000 refugees and Ethiopians returning home have entered Ethiopia from Sudan since the outbreak of the war.
IRC President and CEO David Miliband said: “For many of the people IRC serves, this is the worst of times. Today, an increasing concentration of global humanitarian need in Watchlist countries is pushed by factors like disproportionate exposure to climate risk, increasing impunity in conflict zones, the rise in conflict, and an increase in public debt matched with diminishing international support. The statistics laid out and the stories told here are not just IRC’s problem, but the world’s problem. They deserve to be understood and solved.
“The headlines today are rightly dominated by the crisis in Gaza. There is good reason for that – it is currently the most dangerous place in the world to be a civilian. The ranking of occupied Palestinian territory as second in the Watchlist reflects that. But the Watchlist is a vital reminder that other parts of the world are on fire as well, for structural reasons relating to conflict, climate, and economy. We must be able to address more than one crisis at once.
“In the face of compounding pressures, the Watchlist is a warning against apathy and inertia. There are plenty of ‘answers’ that are simply wrong. In this year’s Watchlist we reject a series of faulty, often convenient myths, that obstruct not only our view of the emerging geography of global crisis but how to chart a course through it. Truck deliveries on their own cannot deliver aid; aid workers and civilians need to be safe. Europe and the US do not take a disproportionate share of refugees; most are in much poorer countries. Climate change is not tomorrow’s problem; the climate crisis is happening today in Watchlist countries.
“Alongside the myths, there are ideas that, if implemented, could work better. This is the focus of our recommendations. They call on states, civil society, multilateral organizations, and the private sector to adopt a new approach. That is why we highlight a new premium on climate adaptation and women’s empowerment, a people-first shift for the World Bank, and new action to stem the slide of impunity. The debate about these ideas is urgently needed, and real answers even more so.”
