It will be a clash of opposites when Graham Potter’s Sweden takes on Tunisia in the World Cup on Sunday night.
Group F features two terrific teams in the Netherlands and Japan, so the Swedes and Tunisians will know that this match figures to be their best chance at picking up three points.
On the other hand, it will be very difficult for the loser of this match (if there is one) to advance to the knockout stage.
Sweden is a -110 favorite on the three-way moneyline for this battle in Monterrey.
World Cup: Sweden vs. Tunisia odds, prediction
Not many soccer fans would have Tunisia high on their list of must-watch teams.
The Eagles of Carthage will never be mistaken for an offensive dynamo, but they will not make it easy on their opponents. Tunisia didn’t allow a single goal (22 GF, 0 GA) in their 10 qualifying matches.
Despite that flawless record, Tunisia’s dugout has been a picture of upheaval, as the team is now on its fourth manager since the 2022 World Cup.
The chaos at the helm hasn’t changed this team’s DNA, however. For all the talk about building around young, bright talent, Tunisia will still come to this World Cup with one strategy in mind: Defend their guts out.
Sweden had a very different qualification process. The Swedes were winless in UEFA qualifying, but they secured a playoff spot via their Nations League ranking and defeated Ukraine and Poland to punch their ticket. That’s all in the rear-view mirror for Blågult now, though.
Potter is a forward-thinking manager, but he’s happy to adapt his team’s tactics to their opponents. He’ll know that Tunisia will sit deep and try to spring attacks on the counter, so you could see Sweden ease into this contest. They’ve got plenty of attacking talent with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres, but the middle of the field could be a question mark.
Jesper Karlström will be tasked with holding down the fort in the midfield, and he’s got a massive job to try and snuff out Tunisian counterattacks before they get into dangerous areas.
Going up against a stubborn defense, Sweden will need to deploy a more direct style, trying to find Isak and Gyokeres in the box off crosses and set pieces. That is playing into the strength of the Tunisian defense, but it also should help mitigate the risk of getting nicked on the counter.
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This match, which will be played at 1,770 feet above sea level, has all the hallmarks of a rock fight.
Sounds like a great recipe for a bet on the nil-nil draw.
The Play: Under 0.5 goals (+800, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.