WASHINGTON — Ukrainian forces have had limited success uprooting entrenched Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine after several weeks of fighting, and significant losses of troops and equipment, according to U.S. officials.
Now the western-backed counteroffensive that began with great hope faces crunch time with fall approaching. The rain and mud of autumn will make the slog even harder.
“There is grinding progress,” said Seth Jones, senior vice president and director of the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It’s the beginning of August. The reality is that it’s not clear how much the Ukrainians will be able to take back in a short time frame.”
The counteroffensive began early in the summer amid high expectations. U.S. and western allies had trained more than 60,000 troops in NATO tactics that stress synchronizing attacks among ground combat units, artillery and air power. The Pentagon provided dozens of armored personnel carriers, and other allies sent modern tanks and equipment.
Visions of quick gains were based in part on last fall’s experience when Ukrainian forces retook swaths of northern Ukraine as Russian troops retreated in disarray.
The war, launched as an illegal, unprovoked invasion in February 2022 by Russian President Vladimir Putin, has been enormously bloody and costly. More than 9,300 Ukrainian civilians have been killed and 16,600 wounded, according to the United Nations. Estimates of Russian and Ukrainian troop casualties vary. Russian casualties totaled about 200,000 troops, 40,000 of them killed, U.S. officials estimated this spring. U.S. classified ocuments allegedly leaked by a U.S. airman showed about 125,000 Ukrainian troop casualties, about 17,000 of them killed in action.
The Pentagon has shipped or promised more than $44 billion in military aid to Ukraine. For Putin, the war has been a strategic blunder. Ukrainian resolve dashed his hope of a swift victory in days or weeks. The fighting exposed deficiencies in the Russian army’s leadership, training and equipment. Instead of dividing NATO, the alliance added Finland to its ranks, and, along with it, another 800 miles of its border with Russia. Sweden is now poised to become NATO’s 32nd nation. But to break the stalemate and advance Ukrainian progress, western officials say Ukraine will need more help in its counteroffensive, including advanced fighter jets to break past Russian defenses in occupied territory.
Limited gains
Ukrainian forces this summer have made minimal gains along a 600-mile front in eastern Ukraine, according to U.S. officials who were not authorized to speak publicly. Some potentially significant thrusts have been made in recent days.
But thus far little ground has been retaken. In most spots, progress is measured in tenths of a mile, said one U.S. official who was not authorized to speak publicly. That’s not a lot considering Russia illegally occupies about 20% of Ukraine.
One of the brighter spots, the source said, has been in western Zaporizhzhia province in southeastern Ukraine where Ukraine has committed resources and troops there.
Advances there, however, are likely to be marked by periods of pause and setbacks, according to an assessment Thursday by the Institute for the Study of War.
Ukrainian troops have also made gains near the hollowed-out city of Bakhmut, the official said. That city was the site of fierce fighting over the winter.
Why Ukraine hasn’t made more progress
Russian forces spent the winter and spring preparing elaborate layers of defense, according to an analysis by Jones. They seeded the ground with vast minefields as a first line of defense, built berms and erected tank barriers known as “dragon’s teeth” to funnel Ukrainian forces onto ground they can blanket with artillery fire.
Ukrainian troops have confronted “hundreds of minefields,” the U.S official said. It’s difficult to thread through mines safely in the best circumstances. Doing so under fire has killed or wounded a significant number of Ukrainian troops, the official said, adding total casualties was unclear. Dozens of western armored vehicles have also been destroyed or damaged.
Slow progress isn’t a surprise nor an indictment of Ukrainian resolve or western tactics, Jones said. The lack of air support for Ukrainian ground troops has been “hamstringing” their counteroffensive.
No U.S.-led attack would involve just one component of the Pentagon’s land, air and sea forces, Jones said. Yet the Ukrainians have been limited to attacking almost exclusively on the ground. Ukrainian pilots fly a relatively small number of Soviet-era aircraft that are overmatched by Russia’s modern fighter jets and air defenses.
“I don’t want to dismiss the possibility of breakthrough in a given area,” Jones said. “But honestly, it’s going to be very difficult to retake the 19% or 20% of Ukraine that Russia occupies.”
What’s next
Expect the Biden administration to continue furnishing Ukraine hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of ammunition, mine clearing equipment and air defenses every few weeks, the official said. Air defense is particularly critical because Russian President Vladimir Putin continues striking civilian targets with drones and missiles.
Constant resupply of ammunition is also vital. Ukrainians have fired as many as 10,000 artillery shells per day at Russian troops. Cluster munitions, shells that scatter smaller explosives, sparked controversy when the Biden administration approved their inclusion in earlier military aid packages. The weapons, banned by more than 100 countries, can leave unexploded bomblets that can kill or maim civilians. They will continue to be sent to Ukraine, the official said.
Using cluster munitions, Ukrainians have had success attacking concentrations of Russian troops, a second U.S. official said. That official, citing recent intelligence reports, also said that Ukrainians have breached minefields in some areas, a hopeful sign that could lead to greater advances.
Notably absent from military air are two items that could accelerate the counteroffensive, Jones said. Advanced fighter jets like the F-16 could provide cover for Ukrainian ground troops, and the Army’s Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS, has a range of nearly 200 miles and can reach key logistics and command posts operated by the Russians. Still, the $44 billion in military aid has been a good investment, Jones said.
“The U.S. has been able to weaken one of its most significant adversaries without losing a single U.S. soldier,” Jones said.
Ukrainian pilots are set to begin training on F-16s, which U.S. allies have committed to providing, sometime this month. ATACMS remain on Ukraine’s wish list but a decision by the White House to send them is not imminent, the first official said. The White House and Pentagon have held back sophisticated weapons like the F-16 over concerns that Russia would escalate the war and strike at nearby NATO countries, sparking a wider conflict. The Ukrainian government has provided assurances that it will not use the weapons to attack inside Russia.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., a member of the Armed Services Committee, backs sending the Ukrainians both weapons systems.
“It is an incremental step that is well-warranted,” Blumenthal said. “It is not providing anything drastically different. It’s more artillery that is deeply necessary due to the entrenched defenses of the Russians, the mines and dragon’s teeth. It’s a profoundly difficult and deadly defense.”
