Yesterday, I wrote about the prospects of teams that didn’t reach the playoffs in 2022 making the jump into postseason this year. And there will inevitably be some given at least four have leveled up annually going back to 1990, including eight last season.
But the NFL is a zero-sum game. For every club that graduates into the Super Bowl tournament, another is relegated to also-ran status. Which postseason squads from a year ago run the highest risk of regression? With my annual record projections as a guideline, let’s rank these squads from most likely to least on the probability their season will extend beyond a mere 17 games (projected record in parentheses with asterisks denoting 2022 playoff teams that won’t qualify in 2023):
1. Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)
Their schedule is the league’s toughest (based on 2022 opponents’ winning percentages), the coordinators are new, and there are different starters at running back and linebacker. But the reigning NFC champions otherwise return mostly intact, arguably boasting the best roster in the league top to bottom. Minus a catastrophic injury to QB Jalen Hurts, tough to imagine a scenario where this team isn’t at least among the conference’s seven best by the regular season’s conclusion.
2. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Preseason Super Bowl darlings a year ago, they’re fully healthy – namely LB Von Miller, CB Tre’Davious White and safeties Micah Hyde and Damar Hamlin – and the run game and pass defense each appear nicely upgraded. A daunting schedule, imposing division, volatile WR Stefon Diggs and an offensive load inordinately borne by QB Josh Allen are potential pitfalls, but ones this team is capable of sidestepping all the way to Super Bowl 58.
3. San Francisco 49ers (11-6)
The departure of defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, holdout of 2022 Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa and an offensive line that has questions to the right of All-Pro LT Trent Williams seem like faded red flags given second-year QB Brock Purdy and his throwing arm seem to be OK heading into the regular season. Frankly, if Purdy can build upon what he unexpectedly pulled off late in 2022 as a rookie, 11 wins – especially in the NFC – may be a very conservative estimate for these Niners.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7)
Don’t misinterpret this as a belief the Jags are the league’s fourth-best team … though that wouldn’t necessarily be an outrageous take given last year’s leap and a foundation they continue to build upon under HC Doug Pederson. But given the state of affairs in the AFC South – the Jags ought to go at least 5-1 in a division they should own for another year or two – it seems fairly safe to pencil them into the postseason bracket … and ink becomes appropriate if the Tennessee Titans become sellers at the trade deadline.
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5. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
Don’t misinterpret this as a belief the Super Bowl 57 champs are the league’s fifth-best team … though that wouldn’t necessarily be an outrageous take given the murderers’ row they’ll have to survive to win an eighth straight AFC West crown or certainly host the conference title game for the sixth year in a row. And – while breaking in a pair of new offensive tackles and moving on from former OC Eric Bieniemy aren’t necessarily insignificant issues – the depth of the AFC is really the crux of why K.C. might not win 12 games for the first time under QB Patrick Mahomes or, gasp, might have to hit the road during the playoffs for the first time in the two-time MVP’s career.
6. Seattle Seahawks (10-7)
Wild cards in 2022, the ‘Hawks only appear improved as they continue infusing young talent into their core courtesy of the 2022 Russell Wilson trade. Unless QB Geno Smith reverts to his Jets iteration, it seems more plausible that Seattle wins the NFC West than misses postseason.
7. Cincinnati Bengals (12-5)
With all hands on deck, they’re probably the best team in the AFC North – though not by any significant margin given there’s a case for any of the division’s members to come out on top in 2023. Yet with none other than WR Ja’Marr Chase suggesting QB Joe Burrow should sit out the first month of the season – even though the Stripes open with the Browns and Ravens – to let his injured calf heal, worth wondering if this team is appreciably more vulnerable than it looked just two weeks ago.
8. Dallas Cowboys (9-8)
It already seems an offense that performed quite effectively under deposed coordinator Kellen Moore goes into 2023 with competing objectives depending on whether you’re listening to HC (and new play caller) Mike McCarthy or owner Jerry Jones. Regardless, a defense augmented by 2019 Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore might be so good that QB Dak Prescott and Co. might be riding shotgun however far “America’s Team” goes.
9. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
They look good on paper – specifically newly extended QB Lamar Jackson, who’s healthy and now pulling in plenty of paper over the next five seasons. But despite the fireworks he sparked at the University of Georgia (Note: the Dawgs operate without a salary cap and have been underpinned lately by one of the best defenses in college football history), new OC Todd Monken has had middling success running his system in the NFL. Perhaps he’s able to design an attack that channels Jackson’s passing success at Louisville. And perhaps the Ravens struggle with what seems like a 180-degree turn from the offensive identity they’d previously embraced with Jackson. A (talented) work in progress, yet one with scant margin for error.
10. Miami Dolphins (11-6)
Given how tightly packed the AFC is shaping up to be, the loss of newly acquired CB Jalen Ramsey might prove a mortal blow to the Fins’ hopes for a playoff return. A full season with QB Tua Tagovailoa, full season with HC Mike McDaniel’s playbook in the memory banks and arrival of DC Vic Fangio might be enough to keep Miami viable until Ramsey returns. But another early broadside could sink these mammals.
11. *Minnesota Vikings (7-10)
No Dalvin Cook. No Adam Thielen. No Eric Kendricks. No Za’Darius Smith. No Patrick Peterson. No expectation they’ll win 13 games again while getting outscored over the course of the season. No expectation WR Justin Jefferson will ever get singled. Really, no expectations … other than QB Kirk Cousins’ postgame attire being a topic of conversation.
12. *New York Giants (6-11)
Another crew that probably overperformed in 2022, though the G-Men were good enough to take out the Vikes in postseason. No dearth of ability here, but the Giants have the misfortune of drawing the AFC East and NFC West as part of their non-divisional schedule – so, hard to find many wins in that rundown.
13. *Los Angeles Chargers (7-10)
Their star power is undeniable … as is this team’s inability to play consistent defense, close out big games or take a conservative approach – talking to you, Brandon Staley – when that’s the obvious course of action. With Moore calling plays, wouldn’t be a shock if the Bolt top the offensive charts – and still lose 10 games given the expected improvement of many teams (Dolphins, Broncos, Jets, Lions, Ravens) they’ll face.
14. *Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-12)
They won eight games (plus the NFC South) last season under Tom Brady. Will matters really improve without him but with a disjointed O-line and rookie play caller Dave Canales?
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis.
