LOS ANGELES ― Just one victory. That’s what the Los Angeles Lakers want and need. Just one.
Down 3-0 to the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference finals, the Lakers face what has been an impossible endeavor. No team in 149 3-0 series in NBA history has come back and won the series. Just three teams in those 149 scenarios even forced a Game 7.
A LeBron James team is down in the conference finals 3-0 for the first time in his career, though three times he has been down 3-0 in the NBA Finals.
A James team has been swept in the playoffs twice, both in the Finals — 2007 against San Antonio and 2018 against Golden State. But James is also part of the only team to come back from a 3-1 deficit in the Finals and win a championship. That happened against Golden State in 2016.
“Just got to get one,” he said. “Just one at a time. Just focus on Game 4, and that’s all you can really think about.”
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Game 4 is Monday in Los Angeles (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). While games have been close, the Nuggets have just been better, especially when it’s time to make plays with game undecided.
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What do the Lakers need to do to climb back into the series?
Slow down Jamal Murray
Murray scored 37 points in Game 2 and 37 again in Game 3. Over those two games, he is 26-for-53 from the field and 11-for-25 on 3-pointers.
“Once he gets it going, it’s kind of hard to turn him off,” James said.
Murray is feasting on the Lakers’ very good defense. Los Angeles will consider putting a bigger defender on Murray, using the pesky and effective Dennis Schröder. The Lakers’ Jarred Vanderbilt could spend more time defending Murray, but every Lakers decision creates an advantage elsewhere. The Nuggets have been masterful in finding those advantages in the series.
Western Conference finals: One win away from NBA Finals, Nuggets credit teamwork for playoff dominance
Less D’Angelo Russell for the Lakers
Lakers point guard D’Angelo Russell, acquired from Minnesota before the February trade deadline, has struggled offensively in the series. He is averaging 7.0 points on 8-for-27 shooting, including 2-for-14 on 3-pointers.
Individual plus-minus in basketball can be a misleading stat, especially in a small sample size. Regardless, it’s hard to ignore that the Nuggets are 51 points better than the Lakers when Russell is on the court. In the conference semifinals against Golden State, Russell was plus-10.
It leaves Los Angeles coach Darvin Ham in a tricky spot. It helped the Lakers get into the playoffs and then win two series. But he’s not providing that now.
“We have all the faith in the world in DLo,” Ham said earlier in the series.
Ham has tinkered with lineup changes, and inserting Rui Hachimura into the starting lineup is another option. But it might be difficult to make Russell a reserve. Ham can’t crush his confidence, but he also can’t leave him in the game too long either if he’s not producing.
The best Lakers lineup in the series is James, Schroder, Hachimura, Anthony Davis and Austin Reaves. The lineups with James, Davis, Russell, Reaves and Vanderbilt, and James, Davis, Schroder, Russell and Reaves have been clobbered.
More Austin Reaves for the Lakers
The second-year undrafted guard from Arkansas is the Lakers’ third-best scoring option behind James and Davis.
He is averaging 22.7 points, 6.0 assists and 4.0 rebounds and shooting 55% from the field and 56.5% on 3-pointers. There are just so many shots to go around, especially with James and Davis getting almost 20 attempts per game, but Reaves had just 10 attempts (seven makes) in Game 3.
He makes 3s, gets into the paint, draws fouls and creates for his teammates.
A more impactful LeBron James
The stats for James against Denver are fine: 23.7 points, 10.3 assists and 9.3 rebounds and shooting 48.1% from the field.
That may be great for another player, but fine isn’t good enough for James, who is shooting 15.8% on 3s. This is a tough series with difficult defensive assignments for the 38-year-old James, who is guarding Nuggets from Jokic to Murray to Michael Porter Jr.
Try to keep Jokic from dominating
From the fourth quarter of Game 1 through the third quarter of Game 3, Jokic scored just 35 points. Even though he averages a triple-double in the conference finals (27 points, 14.7 rebounds, 11.3 assists), the Lakers have done a decent job curbing Jokic’s scoring. But it’s tough to keep him quiet for an entire game.
In Game 3, Jokic had a pedestrian 24 points, eight assists and six rebounds. But 15 of his points came in the fourth quarter when the Nuggets pulled away. There’s a reason he was named MVP in 2021 and 2022 and finished second in voting this season.
Limit his scoring and he beats an opponent with his passing. Try to take away his passing and he scores eventually.
Quiet Denver’s role players
Michael Porter Jr., Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have combined for 44.6 points per game on 49.5% shooting from the field and 45.3% on 3s against the Lakers. When Jokic and Murray are on the bench or not scoring, those three players have made important shots. Aaron Gordon isn’t scoring much, but works on defense and on the glass (six offensive rebounds) for second-chance opportunities.
The Nuggets have the best offense in the playoffs at 119.2 points per 100 possessions, making 49.6% of their shots, including 41.4% on 3s. Denver’s offense puts so much pressure on the defense. It’s a common sight to see Denver’s ball movement making the Lakers scramble to cover open shooters.
Make more shots, especially 3s
The Lakers are shooting a solid 48%. They’ve put up points. They’re just not making enough 3s. There’s a difference of five made 3s per game − a 15-point swing. The Lakers are at 33.7%. James, Russell and Dennis Schroder are less than 30% from that range, including less than 20% for James and Russell.
But the Lakers have been close in the fourth quarter of every game. They just can’t finish. In Sunday’s availability with reporters, Ham said fourth-quarter turnovers, lack of physicality, not enough execution and a very good Nuggets team have led to three consecutive losses.
He also said, “Sometimes the best adjustment is to play better.”
