Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged to take “decisive actions” Saturday to halt what he described as a treasonous, armed rebellion by the head of the Wagner mercenary group, a scenario that represents a major security threat to Putin’s rule.
Putin made the comments in a televised address after Yevgeny Prigozhin vowed to “go all the way” to Moscow to topple Russia’s military leadership.
The Wagner group is a private military army that’s been fighting alongside Russia’s regular army in Ukraine, but tensions over how the war has been fought have been building for months.
It’s not clear if Prigozhin is trying to stage a wider coup or just force a change at the top of Russia’s military. He’s also earned a reputation for disinformation, which he’s used for years on and off the battlefield.
“We still don’t know what mechanisms may arise, but the writing is on the wall. Going after Prigozhin is a finger in the dike. The bigger picture is the end of Putinism,” said Kurt Volker, a former U.S. special envoy to Ukraine.
More:Wagner mercenary group boss threatens to pull paramilitary troops from Bakhmut
On Friday, Prigozhin accused Moscow of launching a deadly military strike on his troops. He did not provide evidence. Prigozhin claimed Saturday his forces had crossed into Russia from Ukraine and reached Rostov-on-Don, home to Russia’s military headquarters for the southern region that oversees the fighting in Ukraine.
Prigozhin claimed his forces had military facilities in the city under their control, including the air field. Videos posted on social media showed military vehicles, including tanks, on the streets, though the atmosphere appears relatively calm. Putin has appeared to acknowledge that Russia’s military has lost control of Rostov-on-Don and there are indications Wagner fighters have moved north to Voronezh, about 320 miles from Moscow.
In his address, which lasted about five minutes, Putin described the apparent mutiny as “a stab in the back of our country and our people.” He vowed to punish those responsible. He did not mention Prigozhin by name. Russia’s leader said Prigozhin’s actions were a “criminal adventure” and a “grave crime.”
Wagner turns on Russia. Is it a coup?
Not according to Prigozhin.
Ukrainian officials declined to comment directly on whether Prigozhin was leading an insurrection against Putin.
However, Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s top military intelligence official, told Ukrainian TV on Saturday that the conflict between Russia’s military leadership and Prigozhin is “a frontal clash of lies and truth.”
Budanov said that since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Prigozhin, whether “you like him or not,” has been largely accurately pointing to miscalculations, poor equipment, lack of training, low morale and other problems faced by Russia’s regular army, while Russia’s defense ministry tells “mainly lies.”
In an intelligence update, Britain’s defense ministry described the apparent rebellion as the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times. Though it also noted in a separate update that there was limited evidence of fighting between Wagner and Russian security forces.
“Over the coming hours, the loyalty of Russia’s security forces, and especially the Russian National Guard, will be key to how the crisis plays out,” it said.
Adam Hodge, a spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council, said President Joe Biden has been briefed. “We are monitoring the situation and are consulting with allies and partners on these developments.”
Why chaos in Russia?
U.S. officials observing the chaos unfolding in Russia Saturday have reached few conclusions about the rupture between Putin and Prigozhin. One widely held belief is that Prigozhin won’t survive, said a senior U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity. That leaves open the question of who will lead his brutal band of mercenaries.
Prigozhin’s death would leave his force of tens of thousands armed men, many conscripted convicts, without a leader. The Russian military leadership has been unable to properly lead and care for its own troops during its 16-month-long invasion of Ukraine, the official said. That makes it unclear how, or even if, Russia could absorb as many as 25,000 Wagner mercenaries.
For the moment, having those mercenaries fighting inside Russia relieves some pressure on Ukraine, the official said. Russia has relied on Wagner forces to do much of its heavy fighting, particularly over the winter and spring near the besieged city of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s east.
What are the origins of the Prigozhin-Russia feud?
Prigozhin was once such a close ally of Russia’s leader he earned the nickname “Putin’s chef,” a reference to the lucrative catering and construction contracts he won with the Kremlin and Russia’s defense ministry.
Wagner has worked on behalf of the Russian government in Syria, Libya, across Africa from the Central African Republic to Sudan, and for the last 18 months in Ukraine.
‘It’s hard, but they’re holding on’:On the ground in Ukraine, the war depends on U.S. weapons
Prigozhin’s relationship with Russia’s military has steadily deteriorated amid a grinding battle for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. He’s blamed Russian military bureaucracy and incompetence for high casualty rates among Wagner fighters in Bakhmut and his inability to fully capture the city.
In a Telegram post on Saturday, Prigozhin said he had 25,000 Wagners fighters “ready to die” in support of his “march for justice.” Moscow has denied striking Wagner forces.
Governments, conflict-watchers monitoring Russia developments closely
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zekenskyy weighed in with comments posted on his Telegram channel, saying “Russia (has) used propaganda to mask its weakness and the stupidity of its government. And now there is so much chaos that no lie can hide it.” Zelenskyy added that “the longer Russia keeps its troops and mercenaries on our land, the more chaos, pain and problems it will have for itself later.”
Here’s what some others, in and outside government, are saying on Twitter, Telegram, in emailed newsletters, statements and from other sources:
- China state media: “The Russian Armed Forces have received the necessary order to neutralize those who organized the armed rebellion of the Wagner private military group.”
- Charles Michel, European Council president: “This is clearly an internal Russian issue.”
- Ramzan Kadyrov, Chechen leader and Putin ally: “I appeal to the fighters, the patriots of our motherland. Don’t give in to provocations. Whatever aims you are given, whatever promises are made to you, the safety of our state and cohesion of Russian society are the most important thing right now.”
- Alexander S. Vindman, former director of the U.S. national security council and an expert on Ukraine and Russia: “The seizure of the (Rostov-on-Don) SMD HQ and the potential consolidation of control over bases in the area has taken the insurrection into very dangerous territory.”
- Phillips P. O’Brien, strategic security expert at the University of St Andrews: “At first this attempt by Prigozhin seemed almost impulsive and bound to fail (and it still might −and probably should if the Russian army stays loyal to Putin). However, what does seem to be the case now is that this is a well-planned operation.”
- British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called an emergency national security meeting of the nation’s so-called Cobra unit to discuss the unfolding situation in Russia, according to the BBC.
Prigozhin claims Wagner reached Rostov ‘without a single shot’ fired
Prigozhin claimed in an audio clip published on Telegram that when his mercenaries captured the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don they did so “without a single shot” being fired.
Prigozhin also claimed that the Wagner mercenaries were welcomed into Rostov by residents of the city.
“There are people on the street who unfurl the flags of the PMC Wagner,” Prigozhin said.
Prigozhin’s claims could not immediately be verified.
Where is Putin now?
His spokesman Dmitry Peskov says he’s “working in the Kremlin” in Moscow, according to TASS, a Russia state news agency.
Still, with a powerful paramilitary group just a few hundred miles outside Russia’s capital, and apparently quickly advancing, the rumor mill has been in overdrive on social media.
Some Twitters users and media noted, citing the FlightRadar plane tracking service, that Putin’s official presidential jet − identification number Il96-300PU − took off from Moscow at 2:16 p.m. local time. The data on FlightRadar do not indicate where his plane went, or whether he’s on it.
He’s known to have several lavish palaces including a sprawling villa on the Black Sea.
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Current crisis could spell ‘the end of Putinism,’ former U.S. diplomat says
Prigozhin’s actions likely reflect a broader consensus by Russia’s elites that the invasion of Ukraine was a mistake that is weakening their country and that Putin needs to go, said Kurt Volker, the former U.S. ambassador to NATO.
“Bottom line: Putin has left himself no way out. As long as he is in power, he will fight. And that will kill the Russian state. So this means his removal from power becomes inescapable if Russia is to survive as a state,” said Volker, the former U.S. special representative for Ukraine negotiations from 2017 to 2019.
“We still don’t know what mechanisms may arise, but the writing is on the wall,” Volker told USA TODAY. “Going after Prigozhin is a finger in the dike. The bigger picture is the end of Putinism.”
