It’s desperation time for the San Antonio Spurs as they head into Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals.
San Antonio looked rather exhausted at the end of Game 5, a loss in which they never led in the second half and were down by as much as 18 points on the road.
Still, they find themselves in Game 6 as 3.5-point favorites after being 2.5-point favorites in their last home matchup in Game 4.
So the sportsbooks clearly believe in the Spurs’ ability to force a Game 7, and surely the league wants to see that outcome.
But Victor Wembanyama is coming off his worst game of the series, where he took only 15 shots.
The Spurs are tough to trust at this point, especially as 3.5-point favorites, since my model projects this game as a coin flip, giving us some value on the defending champions.
Though you can bet that the Spurs will get every possible opportunity and call to force a Game 7.
That, and the fact that Wembanyama was called out by his coach, Mitch Johnson, to be more aggressive in scoring.
So I’ll pass on the Thunder’s tempting moneyline at +140 and go back to targeting the total of 218.5, especially after these two blew past that number in Game 5.
The last game that the Spurs won, they held the Thunder to 82 points and while holding them down that low may never happen again, the under total covers multiple ranges of outcomes.
If San Antonio folds due to exhaustion in Game 6, they’re liable to go on scoring droughts and get blown out.
Should the Spurs pull off a victory, it usually starts on the defensive side of the ball for them.
After a loss, the Spurs were 17-9 to the Under — by far the best record in the NBA among teams that actually made the playoffs.
Betting on the NBA?
The Spurs have a history of putting up significant defensive effort after a loss. We’ve seen it in this series and all season long.
THE PLAY: Under 218.5 (+108, Kalshi)
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