Ukraine is “certain to fail” in its war against Russia if the US doesn’t provide Kyiv with more aid, Western officials have warned.
A package of aid for Ukraine has stalled in Congress – America and its allies are assessing what they have said could be a potentially devastating impact on the country’s ability to defend itself as well as its ability to fight Russia long-term, several US and European officials told CNN.
“There is no guarantee of success with us, but they are certain to fail without us,” one senior US military official told the outlet.
The most immediate concern is how the lack of aid will affect the situation on the southern and eastern fronts. Even with significant US aid, Ukraine has failed to significantly retake large swathes of occupied territory.
“If looking at taking and holding further territory,” one European diplomat said, “it is hard to see how that could succeed without continued US support.”
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Western officials also fear the loss or further of US aid could impact funds and equipment from other allies. Ukraine suffered another blow on Friday when Hungary blocked €50 billion (£43 billion) in European Union funding for the country. Talks on the issue are expected to resume next month.
Democratic US Representative Mike Quigley, who co-chairs the Congressional Ukraine Caucus said: “If we go south, our allies will too.”
Western intelligence agencies are currently calculating how long Ukraine could withstand the march of Vladimir Putin’s forces without help from the US and NATO.
One senior US military official estimated it may be just months, and offered a significant setback or even a Russian victory by the summer as a worst-case scenario.
A defeat for Ukraine would be a catastrophe for its people, and wider European security – as well as a major blow to the United States.
Asked about the hold-up on aid from Washington, Estonian PM Kaja Kallas told the outlet from Brussels: “We can’t talk about war fatigue right now because if we do and give in, then Putin wins and that will mean a catastrophe to everybody.
She added: “That will mean more conflicts, more wars, more scarcity of food supply, all the different worries that come along with it. So that’s why we have to make an effort now.”
Ukrainian forces have already been reduced to rationing ammunition, US and Ukrainian officials said. Russia’s army is now able to fire back at a ratio of five to seven times greater than Ukraine.
Ukrainian army commanders believe the impact on their firepower has led to additional Ukrainian casualties, a senior official from the country’s military told CNN.
Western officials assess that without further aid from America, Ukraine would first run out of long-range missiles, then air defence missiles and later artillery ammunition and short-range missiles such as Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missiles. These armaments have been vital to Ukraine ongoing defence.
Air defence missiles have been particularly essential in recent weeks as Russia expanded its attacks on civilian infrastructure, while shorter-range missiles have allowed Ukraine forces to defend against Russia’s far greater numbers of tanks and aircraft.
One European diplomat said the implications of a Ukrainian defeat could be appalling.
They said: “I don’t think people fully realize what Ukraine’s fall would actually mean. We would see horrible things: ethnic cleansing and total destruction of Ukraine. Remember what they did in Bucha.
“So, it is already a success if we can prevent that from happening. And that is why we must carry on.”
