'Vladimir Putin still hasn't realised two years into the Ukraine war – he can't win'

Vladimir Putin “cannot defeat Ukraine” even if the war ends with the eastern European country losing some of its territories, a former member of the Russian Parliament said.

On this day two years ago (February 24), the Russian President ordered an unprovoked and illegal invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, mentioning the plea of the internationally unrecognised republics in Donbas and NATO expansions among his reasons to act.

His war has already cost hundreds of thousands of lives, destroyed entire Ukrainian cities and even brought devastation to Russian regions bordering the war-torn nation.

Amid dwindling military aid from its Western allies, last year Ukraine failed to take back from Russian hands any major cities in the south and east, and earlier this month it withdrew from the frontline city of Avdiivka after strenuously defending it for several months.

Still, Ilya Ponomarev, a former member of the Russian Duma who has been vocal against not just the ongoing war but also the annexation of Crimea in 2014, believes Ukraine can’t lose the war even if it’s mangled of some of its internationally recognised territories.

He told Express.co.uk: “I think that Ukraine cannot be defeated, because you cannot defeat the people, you cannot defeat the nation.”

Referring to the second Russian war against Chechnya, a tiny Muslim republic in southern Russia, that started one year before Putin’s arrival at the Kremlin, Mr Ponomarev said: “I was very surprised from the very beginning when Putin started his aggression, because he began his presidential term with fighting with the Chechens. And he realised then firsthand that you cannot defeat the whole nation when everybody’s fighting against you, and you have to make a deal.

“I think that’s the same thing happening with Ukraine. So I don’t think there is a very big threat of Ukraine being defeated.”

Mr Ponomarev, who went into exile in Ukraine in 2016 and, following the invasion, joined the Ukrainian Army’s military reserve Territorial Defence Forces, believes the real question is on which terms the war will end. A ceasefire in Ukraine, he believes, could soon become a major threat to the whole world.

He said: “I think that would actually encourage Putin and other dictators around the world to continue what they are doing and to escalate more, and to create more offensives in other countries. I believe the next target for Putin is very obvious – it’s NATO countries on the eastern flank including the Baltic States and Poland.”

Moreover, he added, a ceasefire with Kyiv would translate into the “greatest encouragement” for China, one of Russia’s closest allies, to go after Taiwan, Mr Ponomarev said.

Looking back at the past two years of war, the former Duma member acknowledged Ukrainian expectations for 2023 were much higher than what the troops staving off the Russian invaders managed to achieve.

He said: “If I were to compare where we are now to what we felt on February 24, 2022, I would say Ukraine is doing fantastically, it has superseded the most optimistic expectations I had at the time as it liberated a significant part of the occupied territories.

“But if I were to compare the current situation to what we were expecting at the beginning of 2023, then obviously our expectations were much higher following the successful operations in Kharkiv and the liberation of Kherson in November 2022. We were anticipating larger advances during 2023 – but alas, we lost tempo.”

Mr Ponomarev believes many of the issues linked to the unsatisfactory results of the counteroffensive launched by Ukraine in June 2023 had to do with the slow delivery of modern military aid from Kyiv’s allies in the West.

Ukraine’s hurdles when it comes to military support only worsened in the second half of 2023, with Republicans in the US Congress blocking a bill that includes billions worth of aid for the war-torn country. Another £42bn package, this time from the European Union, was stalled for weeks due to the opposition of Hungarian President Viktor Orban, who only agreed to it in early February.

The conversation about Western aid to Ukraine remains very much alive, with US President Joe Biden blaming Ukraine’s loss of Avdiivka on the funding drying up.

Geopolitical analyst Kervin Aucoin also stressed how “pivotal” Western support for Ukraine remains after the conflict has entered the stage of war of attrition.

He told Express.co.uk: “Equipping Ukrainian forces with essential resources is not only prudent but also strategically imperative. The imminent deployment of trained F-16 pilots holds promise, potentially reshaping air superiority dynamics and bolstering ground operations.”

The outcome of the war, he continued, “is far from decided”, but is very much linked to how committed the West is to supporting its invaded ally.

Much like Mr Ponomarev, Mr Aucoin, founder of private intelligence company Aucoin Analytics, believes Putin would be emboldened by a ceasefire or a territorial gain in Ukraine to “potentially expand territorial ambitions westward”.

He added: “Ukraine stands as a geopolitical fulcrum. As we navigate this complex landscape, we must recognise that Putin’s vision extends far beyond the Donbas. The stakes are high, and the West’s response matters.”

As Ukrainian soldiers continue to fight on the frontline and defend their cities, Mr Ponomarev looked at how the conflict could evolve this year. Without a breakthrough in military equipment, he believes, Ukraine will remain largely in a defensive position.

Asked what the West can do to truly help the Ukrainian war effort, he replied: “The immediate thing that is needed is definitely the delivery of more aid. But I think we should start talking about post-war Russia and political changes in Russia. Because right now, the West, unconsciously and obviously not on purpose is acting as a stabiliser for the Putin regime.”

Discussion regarding a potential ceasefire sends a clear message to the Kremlin that all that the Russian elites need to do is “sit tight and wait”, the politician believes. Rather, the UK, US and EU should start sending the message that their relations with Russia will never be normalised again as long as Putin is in the Kremlin.

He explained, mentioning next month’s presidential elections in Russia: “[The Russian elites] need to receive the opposite message, that this is a dead-end for them, that they need to change the regime in Russia, that nobody would tolerate Putin, that he would not be accepted as a legitimate president after the so-called elections in March, that even if ceasefire happens nobody would ever return to business as usual, that the West has decided that this regime is illegitimate and would act accordingly until it’s changed.”