Vladimir Putin and his mouthpieces have launched “information operations” against Moldova resembling those conducted in the run-up of the invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago, experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe.
In its latest assessment of the conflict, the respected US think tank wrote: “The Kremlin is conducting information operations against Moldova very similar to those that the Kremlin used before its invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, likely to set conditions to justify possible future Russian escalation against Moldova.”
Fears Moldova may be Putin’s next target have been cemented by the recent remarks by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the ISW noted.
On February 14, the Russian official falsely alleged the European Union and the US are controlling the Moldovan Government which, since the election of President Maia Sandu, has become more Western-leaning.
Among other allegations, Mr Lavrov also spoke about Transnistria, a territory which has been trying to break away from Moldova since September 1990 and has been involved in a frozen war with Chisinau for years.
The region has obtained diplomatic recognition only from three post-Soviet and unrecognised states – Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and the former Republic of Artsakh – while the international community agrees it is part of the Moldovan territory.
Nevertheless, Russia is backing this territory through both diplomatic and military means. In his recent remarks, Mr Lavrov said to be “concerned about their fate” when referring to the Russians living in the region – which he claimed are as many as 200,000.
In more remarks eerily similar to those made by the Kremlin ahead of the invasion of Ukraine, the minister added Russia “will not allow” these Russians to “become victims of another Western adventure”.
The ISW noted: “The Kremlin has also used the idea of protecting its ‘compatriots abroad’ to justify the fact that Russian troops have occupied Transnistria since 1992 as well as Russia’s full-scale invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.”
Mr Lavrov’s incandescent comments further the existing narrative pushed by other officials and military bloggers about Transnistria and add new allegations, suggesting to the ISW that the Kremlin may be working towards preventing Moldova from getting too close to the West.
The analysis added: “The timing of a possible Russian hybrid operation in Moldova is unclear, but the Kremlin is setting informational conditions to make it possible soon.”
The warnings from the ISW came after Ms Sandu voiced her concern about a Russian aggression multiple times over the past months.
Last year, the Moldovan President accused Russia of using “saboteurs” disguised as civilians to stoke unrest and political instability as the country is struggling to tackle an energy and financial crisis. Russia has rejected accusations it is plotting to destabilise the former Soviet republic.
Ms Sandu, who in late 2023 thanked Ukraine for protecting Moldova from Russia through its resistance on the battlefield, applied for EU membership for her country, and in December last year Brussels decided to open accession talks.
