Our Week 2 ‘Ugly Underdog’ got the job done in style. Lunch Winfield accounted for three total touchdowns for the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns as they easily covered the 30.5-point spread in a 49-30 loss at USC, putting our record at 2-1. This Saturday, we’re backing another promising Group of 6 offense as they take on the toast of college football, Arch Manning and the No. 1 Texas Longhorns.
This game was on my radar as soon as the 2026 schedule came into focus.
Not only is there the possibility of a letdown for Texas after their stirring, season-defining win over Ohio State last week, but it’s a lookahead spot as the Longhorns travel to Tennessee next week to open up their SEC schedule.
Let’s get this out of the way first: Arch Manning and the Longhorns deserve a ton of credit for their win over Ohio State last week.
Down 23-3 going into the fourth quarter, Texas stormed back against the favorites to win the national championship. That’s a massive accomplishment.
However, it must be noted that the Longhorns were underwhelming for much of the game and rode some luck en route to the victory.
Manning’s stat line was just OK at 23 for 37 for 195 yards with a touchdown and a pick, but he did convert nine of 16 third-down attempts.
Coming up clutch is a crucial skill against teams like Ohio State or Georgia, but something tells me that Manning won’t need many moments like that against UTSA on Saturday afternoon.
The bookmakers tend to agree, as the Longhorns are 30.5-point favorites over their in-state rivals.
UTSA might just be the most underrated program in the Group of 6.
While most folks are well-acquainted with teams like Boise State, Memphis, Tulane and James Madison, the Roadrunners have yet to have their time in the sun under Jeff Traylor.
After working his way up the ranks at high schools in Texas, Traylor became a first-time head coach at the college level when he took over UTSA in 2020. Traylor has yet to have a losing season in San Antonio, and he won two Conference USA championships in 2021 and 2022.
Now in the AAC, perhaps the deepest conference in the Group of 6, the Roadrunners are poised for big things in 2026. Already 2-0 after wins over UT-Rio Grande Valley and Texas State, the Roadrunners are the second-favorites to win the conference behind Memphis.
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The reason for the high expectations is UTSA’s explosive offense, which ranked 25th in yards per play in 2025 and returned its most important contributors, including quarterback Owen McCown and running back Will Henderson III.
The Roadrunners may have issues slowing down the Longhorns on offense, but don’t be shocked if McCown and Co. ask some questions of a Texas defense that hasn’t set the world alight through the first two weeks.
Just a week after pulling off what could be the biggest win of the 2026 regular season, you won’t find many people rushing to fade Manning and the Longhorns.
But when you put that momentum behind you and focus on the rest of the picture, you’ll see plenty of signals that suggest that this is a terrific spot and matchup for an underdog getting 30.5 points.
The Play: UTSA +30.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
