USC basketball’s only path to March Madness is Big Ten Tournament

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The question hung uncomfortably in the air after another victory fell through its clutches, another home crowd left disappointed, another opportunity was lost.

If not now, when?

USC’s latest chance came Saturday at the Galen Center, a showdown against No. 12 Nebraska providing the Trojans a platform to make a statement against a nationally ranked team.


Nebraska's Braden Frager and USC's Chad Baker-Mazara
Nebraska forward Braden Frager (5) and Southern California forward Chad Baker-Mazara, left, react after a hard contact during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/William Liang) AP

If not now, when?

The Trojans led by five points early in the second half before folding amid an injury to Chad Baker-Mazara. It marked a fifth consecutive defeat in a season quietly slipping away.

If not now, when?

This game ended in the same deflating fashion as previous home losses to nationally ranked Purdue and Illinois.

“We’ve had other opportunities, and we haven’t played very well at home,” USC coach Eric Musselman said in something of an understatement after his team’s 82-67 setback against the Cornhuskers. “You know, we’re a better road team, which is unique.”

How are they at neutral sites?

Given the circumstances, USC may have just one more chance to make the NCAA Tournament, and it won’t come on the road against Washington or at home against UCLA.

No, the Trojans’ only remaining hope to play in the only postseason tournament that matters will come in two weeks at the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago.

It will probably take a stirring run — making the championship game at the least, and most likely winning the whole thing — for USC (18-11, 7-11 Big Ten) to qualify for its first NCAA Tournament under Musselman.

That would necessitate winning five games in as many days, a feat nearly as improbable as the Trojans walking to the United Center from Los Angeles. They say they haven’t given up as the calendar flips to March.

“The season’s not over,” forward Terrance Williams II said. “Two games (in the regular season). One Big Ten Tournament game, that’s all we’re promised right now. We can change the trajectory of the season very quickly.”

Making their bid all the more unlikely, they might have to find a way to reverse their fortunes without their two leading scorers. Baker-Mazara went down with an apparent leg injury early in the second half Saturday before joining injured teammate Rodney Rice on a row of baseline seats near the team bench.

Musselman declined to divulge any specifics on the nature of Baker-Mazara’s injury other than to say his star player told coaches he couldn’t return. If that remains the case over the next two weeks, then the lasting image of him in a USC uniform could be his limping through the handshake line after the game.


USC forward Terrance Williams II
Southern California forward Terrance Williams II (5) rebounds the ball over Nebraska forward Rienk Mast (51) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/William Liang) AP

The Trojans didn’t have nearly enough offense without Baker-Mazara. The four other starters combined for 23 points. Guard Alijah Arenas, coming off the bench for the first time this season, didn’t get going until his team had already fallen into an epic funk, scoring his 14 points over the game’s final 13:20.

Forward Jaden Brownell was another positive off the bench with 10 points and a team-leading five rebounds, but the disappearing acts of starters Ezra Ausar, Williams and Jacob Cofie — who combined for 11 points — doomed the Trojans.

“I mean, I wish it was more production,” Musselman said when asked how others stepped up after Baker-Mazara went down. “Look, we didn’t play very good — we didn’t rebound the ball.”

More concerning than getting outrebounded, 41-25, was the energy nosedive early in the second half after USC had put together one of its most spirited, cohesive halves of the season in taking a 36-31 lead.

“The first couple possessions, you could see it,” Williams said. “They wanted it more than we did. We didn’t come out playing hard. We came out lackadaisical, had a couple turnovers, changed the momentum of the game.”

Musselman said his team’s first-half effort was evidence of its continuing late-season belief despite losing four straight before Saturday.

Referencing Oregon’s recent resurgence with center Nate Bittle back in the lineup, Musselman said personnel dictated success. Indeed, getting Baker-Mazara back is the first step toward any sort of late-season surge as USC prepares for its final regular-season games.

“Hey, we’ve got to get ready for Washington,” Musselman said. “I don’t know what else to say.”

There’s nothing left to say. Either the Trojans start winning or the final two weeks will be more of the same disappointment.

If not now, when?

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