Britain and Europe could see a surge in millions of lung-related infections and deaths – as UK experts fear climate change will spark an increased spread in deadly fungus and mould. Aspergillus is a mould spore found all around us – in compost, dead leaves, damp buildings and old bedding – but is resistant to some antibiotics and can cause severe and sometimes fatal bleeding in the lungs.
Especially prone are those with pre-existing lung conditions like asthma, cystic fibrosis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), severe flu patients and those with long-Covid. Now a new study by the University of Manchester has warned that climate change and increasing global temperatures is set to drive the spread of the killer fungus that could infect millions of people a year.
The alarming new research claims shifts in the climate could lead to the fungus spores sweeping to more northerly countries in Europe, Asia and America.
And Dr Norman van Rhijn – a University of Manchester specialist in fungal infections and microbial evolution and co-author of the study – warned the world’s approaching a ‘tipping point’ regarding the rise of fungal pathogens.
Using climate modelling and forecasts, Dr van Rhijn and colleagues mapped how the global distributions of three fungal pathogens – Aspergillus flavus, Aspergillus fumigatus and Aspergillus niger – could soar as climate change worsened.
Dr van Rhijn explained: “We’re talking about hundreds of thousands of lives, and continental shifts in species distributions. In 50 years, where things grow and what you get infected by is going to be completely different.
“Changes in environmental factors, such as humidity and extreme weather events, will change habitats and drive fungal adaptation and spread.
“We’ve already seen the emergence of the fungus Candida auris due to rising temperatures, but, until now, we had little information of how other fungi might respond to this change in the environment.
“Fungi are relatively under researched compared to viruses and parasites, but these maps show that fungal pathogens will likely impact most areas of the world in the future.
“Raising awareness and developing effective interventions for fungal pathogens will be essential to mitigate the consequences of this.”
Fungal infections will be a factor in millions of deaths worldwide each year, van Rhijn warns.
The new study found Aspergillus fumigatus could spread to an additional 77 per cent of territory by 2100 if the world continues to heavily use fossil fuels – infecting an extra 9 million Europeans.
While the study also found Aspergillus flavus could increase by about 16 per cent by 2100, putting 1 million more people at risk of infection from this deadly fungal pathogen in Europe.
The fungus can cause a “spectrum of diseases”, according to van Rhijn, from allergic to chronic to invasive disease.
Dr van Rhijn added: “These diseases are difficult to treat, with only four classes of antifungals available but antifungal resistance being relatively common.
“Even with appropriate treatment death rates are high 20-40 per cent, depending on other factors.”
Around 3.8 million people each year die with invasive fungal infections, with the fungus being the direct cause of death in 2.5 million of those cases, according to research published in 2024.
Aspergillus fumigatus was even named as one of four critical fungal pathogens that pose serious threats to global health by the World Health Organization in 2022.
Spores of the fungus are generated in compost, which can easily disperse into the air which we then unwittingly breathe into our lungs.
Extreme weather events – which experts warn are made worse by climate change – have also been linked with outbreaks of different fungal infections.
While worryingly, antifungal resistance is also being driven by the use of fungicides in agriculture, which are used to protect crops and support food production.
Dr van Rhijn added: “Not only events like extreme drought or wind can increase spores in the air, but also things like floods make the environment (and houses) damp and wet, which fungi thrive upon.”
According to the NHS, symptoms of aspergillosis – caused by breathing in aspergillus mould – include shortness of breath, a cough which may also bring up blood or lumps of mucus, wheezing, a fever, and tiredness.
But Dr van Rhijn warned: “Many infections are spotted late or never because of medical practitioners’ unfamiliarity or because symptoms are mistaken for those of other conditions.
“Diagnostics for aspergillosis infections are not common practice and require specialists to run the sample.”
The new study was funded by Wellcome. Viv Goosens, research manager at Wellcome said: “Fungal pathogens pose a serious threat to human health by causing infections and disrupting food systems.
“Climate change will make these risks worse. To address these challenges, we must fill important research gaps. By using models and maps to track the spread of fungi, we can better direct resources and prepare for the future.”