Britain and its allies will seek to counter Beijing’s influence in the South China Sea with nuclear submarine patrols in the region, thanks to a pioneering trilateral deal, a naval expert has predicted.
Iain Ballantyne, editor of the naval news magazine Warships IFR, was speaking at the end of a month in which the US Congress passed a bill allowing the United States to sell submarines to Australia.
The agreement marks a significant milestone for the AUKUS deal between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States signed in September 2021.
Mr Ballantyne said: “By authorising the transfer to Australia of three nuclear-powered submarines of the Virginia Class – the latest type of attack boat in the US Navy order of battle – the United States Congress has made history.
“While the Americans may have transferred nuclear reactor and also nuclear missile technology to Britain in the 1960s – during the Cold War confrontation between the West and the Soviet Union – this is the first time the USA has provided entire nuclear submarines to an allied nation.”
AUKUS had as its “headlining protect” the provision and construction of submarines, Mr Ballantyne emphasised.
He continued: “America’s willingness to sell nuclear submarines is a sure sign of the major importance the USA places in working closely with Australia in facing down the Chinese threat in Indo-Asia-Pacific.
“China currently has the world’s biggest, if not its most powerful navy…yet. Beijing has ambitions to operate its navy, which includes a large number of submarines, globally, not least off Australian shores, where its spy ships have been caught snooping on exercises and others key aspects of Australia’s defences.”
Australia, like the USA, believed in “forward defence”, Mr Ballantyne said.
He added: “And so, the task of the Royal Australian Navy’s nuclear submarines will be to use their unlimited nuclear power to stealthily patrol across vast distances, to detect and counter Chinese maritime threats before they can reach Australian waters.
“They will be able to mount surveillance missions and stand by to strike in time of war.
To project its power forward into Indo-Asia-Pacific the US Navy is going to operate its own Virginia Class and Los Angeles Class attack submarines from Fleet Best West, near Perth in Western Australia from 2027. Another aspect of AUKUS, it is to be called Submarine Rotational Force West, or SRF-West.”
British submarines are also, on a smaller scale, going to operate from Western Australia, Mr Ballantyne stressed.
He said: “The Americans have a long-established submarine base at Guam in the Western Pacific. Visits by US Navy and Royal Navy submarines to Western Australia already take place but the US decision to operate SSNs on a ‘rotational basis’ is a bigger commitment.
“Both British and American submarines are no strangers to operating from Western Australia, as they both did so in the Second World War, waging war against the Japanese.”
Even in the 1960s, the Royal Navy had submarines based in Sydney, although eventually it opted to disband the unit, the 4th Submarine Squadron, prompting the RAN to buy six modern conventional, British-built Oberon Class diesel-electric boats, Mr Ballantyne pointed out.
Looking to the future, he said: “Today Australian submariners are already serving in British and also American submarines, training to take RAN nuclear-powered submarines on missions from the 2030s. The new SSN-AUKUS boats are being built jointly by the UK and Australia for their respective navies. Work on creating a shipyard in Southern Australia to build those massive vessels – which will be as big as today’s huge ballistic missile submarines – is underway.
“Meanwhile, the project to design and construct SSN-AUKUS draws on the deep experience of the UK’s Barrow-in-Furness submarine yard in the northwest of England, where the future British boats will be built. Australian personnel have been assigned there too, and also with the US Navy and ashore in the States as part of the same nuclear submarine learning process.
“The SSN-AUKUS project is a fully joint enterprise, as that type of boat will be the future attack submarine of the Royal Navy too, replacing the current Astute Class SSNs. The SSN-AUKUS will be armed with conventionally tipped land-attack and anti-shipping missiles, along with torpedoes and able to lay mines. Like all nuclear submarines, it will be able to stay dived and hidden from hostile eyes for entire patrols lasting weeks or months under the sea, ranging across the oceans at high speed.”
• Iain Ballantyne is the author of the submarine warfare history books The Deadly Trade and Hunter Killers, which combined tell the story submarines and the exploits of their crews from ancient times to today. He is also Editor of the naval news magazine Warships IFR
