Donald Trump has told reporters that he expects to speak with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, as the US continues to push for a ceasefire in the war with Ukraine. Last week, Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, visited Moscow to discuss a temporary pause in the fighting after Ukraine agreed to terms set out by the White House. The President told journalists: “A lot of work’s been done over the weekend; we want to see if we can bring that war to an end. Maybe we can, maybe we can’t, but I think we have a very good chance.”
Speaking in a press conference last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that he was open to the possibility of a cessation in fighting, despite previous comments that any pause could backfire on his country. He did, however, add the caveat that many questions first had to be answered before any agreement could be made.
Of the potential talk between the two leaders, Witkoff told CNN: “I think the two presidents are going to have a really good and positive discussion this week.
“This is a highly… complicated situation, and yet we’re bridging the gap between two sides… Mr Trump really expects there to be some sort of deal in the coming weeks, maybe, and I believe that’s the case.”
Trump campaigned on a promise of stopping the war in Ukraine on day one of his presidency and work to achieve that has occupied a significant portion of his first two months in the White House.
While details of how a ceasefire or any long-term peace arrangement would look are unclear, US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth has said publicly that the idea of Ukraine reclaiming its 2014 borders is “unrealistic”.
On questions of land and concessions, Trump told reporters: ““We will be talking about land.
“We will be talking about power plants … we have a lot of it already discussed very much by both sides, Ukraine and Russia. We are already talking about that, dividing up certain assets.”
So, what concessions might Ukraine and its allies have to make to achieve a pause in fighting in the three-year-old conflict?
NATO membership
Russia has long maintained its opposition to Ukraine joining NATO and it is likely that the issue of ascension to the defensive alliance is likely to form an important part of negotiations.
Ukraine has for years indicated a willingness to come under the security blanket of the alliance, with President Volodymyr Zelensky saying last month that he would be happy to resign if it guarantees his country access.
The US seem unlikely to be sympathetic to Ukraine’s desires, with Hegseth saying last month: “The United States does not believe that Nato membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement”.
Pre-2014 borders
Ukraine has publicly stated that it only accepts a return to its pre-2014 borders in any peace settlement. That would see the country reclaim annexed Crimea and parts of the Donbas region first invaded by Russian forces over a decade ago.
Michael Waltz, Mr Trump’s national security adviser, stated that Ukraine would have to relinquish its territory, meaning Kyiv would have to surrender strategically important land to Russia.
Critical National Infrastructure
The ownership of critical infrastructure such as oil and gas refineries, oil pipelines and power stations is likely to feature in discussions.
The importance of these to each side’s war effort and economy has made them crucial targets throughout the way for both nations.
Crucial assets
The West’s response to the invasion of Ukraine was to seize billions of dollars’ worth of Russian assets, something that has had a material impact on the country’s economy.
Inflation is currently sky high, with record high interest rates and labour shortages throughout the country. The majority of these funds had been earmarked for rebuilding Ukraine following the war but it seems likely that Moscow will demand the release of some, if not all frozen assets belonging to the state and powerful individuals within the ruling oligarchy.