Go back to that miserable day last July when Labour got in, and one thing stands out: the voters were so desperate for change that they were prepared to vote for “anyone except the Tories”. And there was often an expletive thrown in. You can understand it. The Tories promised to reduce annual immigration to the tens of thousands and instead increased it to a million. They promised to stop the boats, but instead moved the deck chairs around. They talked a good game, but allowed wokery to hardwire itself into our society.
They imposed a lockdown but couldn’t keep to their own stupid rules. Public services got worse. Waiting list got longer. Taxes went up. Energy bills shot into outer space. Oh yes, a craving for change, especially after 14 years, was understandable. Labour knew that only too well, which is why every time Keir Starmer spoke during that campaign, he did so against a backdrop of bright red “CHANGE” placards. You couldn’t miss them.
Of course, as some of us warned until we were blue in the face, the only change Starmer offered was for the worse. Has anything got better? Nope. The economy has ground to a halt. Public services continue to decline. Taxes have gone up even further. So have energy and council tax bills. And for all the talk of “smashing the gangs” we’re getting more illegal migrants than ever.
Starmer and co should be prosecuted for false advertising, like one of those “get rich quick” frauds that targets the infirm.
But that desperate yearning for change hasn’t disappeared just because Labour has sold us down the river. It’s only too palpable. It’s like an infuriating itch that the voters desperately want to scratch but haven’t quite been able to reach. Enter Reform, a party that didn’t even exist until a few years ago, but now, sensationally, leads in many recent polls.
When Nigel Farage offers change, the voters know it’s not just an empty slogan, but is genuine. Not everyone likes him by any means. He’s called a “marmite politician” for good reason. His tone appeals to some and repulses others.
Millions say they wouldn’t vote for him under any circumstances ever. But few think that life under Reform will be more of the same.
Take a look at a new poll by Ipsos Mori into the main reasons why people vote for a particular party.
For supporters of Labour, the Conservatives, the LibDems and the Greens, the number one reason is: “Their values are better aligned with mine than those of other parties”. But, in stark contrast, Reform supporters say their number one reason is: “They are most likely to provide the UK with the change that it needs”. And their number two reason is: “They are most likely to do what they say they will”.
There you have it. The voters know that the country is going in the wrong direction fast. With almost zero enthusiasm or expectation, they gave Starmer’s Labour a try, but quickly realised they’d made a catastrophic mistake. So, they are turning to the only option for change that still exists.
Here’s one more Ipsos Mori statistic that shows you just how seriously we must now take the prospect of Farage becoming Prime Minister: 36% of voters say it’s fairly or very likely that they will consider voting for Reform at the next election, versus only 31% who say the same for Labour and just 30% for the Conservatives.
It’s not game over yet. Not by a long chalk. But when voters want change, they’ll end up getting it sooner or later. Even if it means a marmite politician in Number 10.
