Tropical Storm Arlene, the first named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, formed Friday afternoon in the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said.
Forecasts from the hurricane center said the storm is expected to remain offshore and have only minimal impact in Florida or any land area as it meanders south in the Gulf.
“The main hazard expected from Arlene is the potential for heavy rain over portions of south and central Florida through Saturday,” the hurricane center said in its 5 p.m. EDT update.
Florida residents may see 1 to 3 inches of rain, with up to 6 inches possible in some locations, through Saturday.
As of 5 p.m. EDT, Arlene’s maximum sustained winds remained at 40 mph, with higher gusts. The center of Arlene was located about 240 miles west of Fort Myers, Florida. It was moving to the south-southeast at 7 mph.
The storm is expected to weaken by Friday night, and it is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday.
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Who will be impacted by Arlene?
“Increasing northerly winds will tend to keep the center of the storm and most of the concentrated area of rain offshore of the Florida Peninsula,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
Heavy, gusty thunderstorms – mainly during the afternoon and evening hours – and rough surf along the beaches of Florida’s western coast can be expected into this weekend, according to AccuWeather.
A flood watch is in effect across portions of South and Southeast Florida, according to the National Weather Service Miami.
Track Tropical Storm Arlene
Why is Arlene moving south?
For Floridians, it’s very unusual to see a forecast with a storm tracking southward in the Gulf of Mexico, but weak, disorganized systems can keep forecasters guessing.
“Marginal systems outside the peak of the season in marginal environments can move in mysterious ways,” said James Franklin, a retired chief of the hurricane specialist unit at the National Hurricane Center.
Why is Arlene the second storm of the year?
While the first named storm of the 2023 season is Arlene, it will actually be the second storm of the year. A system in January was classified in May as a subtropical storm. Since the classification came during a post analysis, it did not get a name and will be documented as “Unnamed.”
Tropical Storm Arlene spaghetti models
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When does a system become a tropical depression or tropical storm?
Both a tropical depression and tropical storm have a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms and a closed low-level circulation, according to NOAA.
- Tropical depression: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less.
- Tropical storm: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph.
Here’s the forecast for the rest of the U.S.
While Florida endures a soggy stretch of weather, unusual warmth and hazy, smoky skies will be the main weather story across much of the northern tier of the nation due in part to wildfires that continue to rage in Canada. Air quality alerts are in effect for large chunks of the Upper Midwest and Northeast.
Meanwhile, western Texas is at risk of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. “The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes,” the weather service said. The hail could be as big as softballs, the Storm Prediction Center said.
Heavy rain is also forecast in the Texas Panhandle, which could lead to flooding.
