Rishi Sunak’s struggles as Tory leader have been brutally exposed by a new survey suggesting cratering support among votes is cratering.
Savanta pollster Chris Hopkins has suggested MPs could even be tempted to ditch him in a last-ditch bid to generate a “new leader bounce” before the general election later this year.
Savanta’s poll, published yesterday, makes grim reading for the PM, with his net favourability rating at -27 – his second-lowest ever level.
There is some encouragement for the Tories in that they have cut Labour’s lead to 14 points, compared with 17 points last month – but Mr Hopkins said it would be scant consolation to the beleaguered 43-year-old former Chancellor, who succeeded Liz Truss in October 2022.
Former minister Sir Simon Clarke MP this week broke ranks by calling for Mr Sunak to quit – and while numerous colleagues have been careful to distance themselves, the possibility of the PM being forced out by a backbench rebellion is not out of the question.
Mr Hopkins told Express.co.uk: “This is absolutely the ‘supports a perennially relegation-threatened League Two team’ part of me, but I guess there is a theory that continually generating a ‘new manager bounce’ is sometimes enough to stay up.
“I’m not saying the Tories should have three leaders this year, but I do think there’s some credence to the idea that a correctly timed new leader bounce could improve their fortunes enough to avoid the defeat current polling would indicate.”
However, he added: “I do think there are a number of barriers to that: firstly there appears to be a lack of a unifying figure on the right that is going to generate public positivity.
“Secondly, there are so many MPs standing down/retiring that simply don’t care about holding their seat, I’m not sure they’ll generate the enthusiasm for revolt.
“Thirdly, obviously it’s not a normal electoral strategy to have four leaders in three years and think it can benefit you. But I just don’t think they have much else to lose.”
The poll, 2,017 UK adults aged 18 and over who were interviewed online between January 19 and 21, puts Labour on 43 percent, the Tories on 29, the Liberal Democrats on 10 percent, Reform UK on eight, the Greens on four and the SNP on three.
Mr Sunak’s net rating is beaten only by the -28 he recorded in November 2023, although Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has little to crow about either, with his favourability rating on -8, down seven points compared with December. However, he is seen as the best Prime Minister, on 40 percent, ten points ahead of Mr Sunak.
Mr Hopkins said: “In what has been a difficult week for Rishi Sunak, this polling is something of a mixed bag. On the one hand, Sunak’s personal ratings continue to flatline, with the recent negative trend regarding his net favourability continuing, and Starmer holding a commanding lead over him in terms of the Best Prime Minister.
“But Labour’s smaller lead here – while it could be an outlier – may provide a crumb of comfort.”
He added: ”Ultimately, the poll perhaps indicates the conundrum Tory MPs and Sunak himself faces.
“The Conservative brand has not recovered from its hammering at the hands of Johnson and Truss, and Sunak himself has failed to inspire any tangible or sustained polling recovery.
“Yet there remains a sense he could, that Labour’s lead is somewhat soft, and all is not yet lost ahead of this year’s election.”
