A former No 10 pollster has warned that the upcoming by-election in Wellingborough could send the Conservative Party into meltdown. Speaking to GB News, JL Partners’ co-founder James Johnson said that the Tories will be more worried about Reform UK’s performance, instead of Labour.
Mr Johnson said that double-digit figures in support for Reform UK at the by-election could send shockwaves through the Conservatives.
Voters are expected to go to the polls in Wellingborough in February 2024 after Tory MP Peter Bone was ousted through a recall petition amid allegations of sexual misconduct.
Former Brexit Party MEP Ben Habib will stand as Reform UK’s candidate in the constituency, and he has already come out fighting.
Mr Habib vowed “to hold this wretched Government to account” while party leader Richard Tice blasted both Tories and Labour.
During his New Year speech this week, Mr Tice added: “Only Reform UK is now the party of the working class, who will stop mass immigration, who will scrap net zero, who will help solve the cost of living crisis.”
Mr Johnson, who previously ran polling in Downing Street under Theresa May, claims that ten percent support for Reform UK would make headlines – and anything beyond could be a crisis for the Tories.
The top pollster said: “A lot of voters that will be likely to vote Reform are the kind of people who don’t vote in by-elections but do vote in general elections.
“I’m not sure we should write them off too quickly but of all the by-elections we’ve had recently this is the one where you’d expect them to do a bit better.”
Mr Tice and Mr Habib fancy their chances in the seat, given that 64 percent of voters backed Brexit in 2016.
Polling aggregator website Britain Elects, which believes Labour is 1.1 points ahead of the Tory Party in the Northamptonshire seat, gives Reform UK 11.5 percent of the vote based on current opinion polls.
Opinion polls have shown a huge surge in support for Reform UK in recent weeks.
A survey conducted by Redfield & Wilton showed the party’s vote share stood at just four percent in October.
The same pollster put support for Reform UK at 10 percent last month. Opinion polls also suggest Reform could receive a significant boost if Nigel Farage opted to lead the party into the election.
Mr Tice said he was “confident” Mr Farage would play a role in Reform’s campaign but did not say how.
Rishi Sunak’s by-election nightmare looks set to continue after Kingswood MP and former Climate Minister Chris Skidmore resigned yesterday from the Commons over the introduction of the Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill.
