The Ukraine military’s intensified push to regain territory seized by Russia could jump-start Kyiv’s slow-developing counteroffensive, but some experts say this war won’t be won on the battlefield anyway.
Western officials said a surge in troops and firepower was underway in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia province, and a Kremlin-installed bureaucrat in the occupied area remarked on social media that “the second wave of the counteroffensive has begun.” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, asked this week about the progress Ukraine has made, stressed that “it’s not a stalemate. They’re not just frozen. The Ukrainians are moving.”
Some experts, however, say a stalemate is the most likely scenario.
Steven Myers, an Air Force veteran who served on the State Department’s Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy under two secretaries of State, told USA TODAY that one of the West’s narratives is that Russian leader Vladimir Putin planned to conquer Ukraine and continue west if not confronted and stopped. But Myers argues that Russia’s military tactics have been “completely inconsistent with conquest.” The agenda was, is and will always be to keep Ukraine out of NATO at all cost, he said.
“Strategically this war was lost by both sides before it started. It will end in stalemate, which I now think was Putin’s intent from the get-go,” Myers said. “President Biden, NATO and Zelenskyy have trapped themselves in a Catch 22 of their own making, unable to deliver on unrealistic expectations they created.”
Sean McFate, a professor at Syracuse University and senior fellow at the nonpartisan Atlantic Council think tank, says Zelenskyy is “in a box. He can’t win but can’t afford to lose either.” For more than a year he demanded increasingly sophisticated weapons and billions of dollars from NATO and promised to push Russia out in a spring offensive. That offensive “has been floundering,” McFate says.
“NATO is experiencing donor fatigue and disappointment with Zelenskyy’s bluster,” McFate said. “He’s losing credibility, Ukraine’s main asset.”
Providing Ukraine with more weapons and expecting the nation to win the war is “the definition of strategic insanity,” McFate said. This war won’t be won on a battlefield because no wars are won that way anymore, he said.
“The U.S. has been winning battles and losing wars for 50 years now,” he said.
Jeff Levine, a former U.S. ambassador to anxious Russian neighbor Estonia, thinks Zelenskyy is doing fine and Ukrainians should feel good about what they are accomplishing. Levine says the Ukrainian leader’s government has exceeded expectations on the battlefield while maintaining services and information-flow to the civilian population amid a devastating war.
Zelenskyy also has made a “desperately needed” effort to combat corruption and appears to be doing a good job managing international aid and crucial bilateral relationships, Levine said.
“How the conflict will end remains the million-dollar question, but I doubt it will be on Putin’s terms,” Levine said. ” I think Putin is suffering far more from weakened political and public support than Zelenskyy.”
Developments:
∎ The Russian-aligned Wagner Group mercenaries training in Belarus are recruiting soldiers from Belarusian military ranks − and one of the conditions of the contract is willingess to fight in Poland and Lithuania if required, Ukraine’s National Resistance Center reported.
∎ A Russian missile attack on Kivsharivka, a town of 18,000 near Kharkiv, killed a 74-year-old woman and wounded four people, local official Oleh Syniehubov said.
‘Second wave has begun’:‘Second wave has begun’: Ukraine makes push for southern province: Live updates
Baltic countries want Russian, Belarusian athletes kept out of Olympics
The foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania released a joint statement expressing “deep concern” over the International Olympic Committee’s plan to allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete at the Summer Olympics in Paris next year. Estonian, Latvia, and Lithuania have been among Ukraine’s strongest supporters in the war with Russia and say they don’t want those athletes competing under a neutral flag. Russia has always used sports as a “tool of politics” to legitimize its politics. Many Ukrainian athletes have been unable to participate in sports because of the war, and some have been killed or injured, the statement said. Additionally, Ukrainian sports facilities have been destroyed by the targeted attacks of Russia on civilian infrastructure.
“The desire to change borders by force, as well as the scale of war crimes and crimes against humanity constitute a gross violation of the United Nations Charter, and undermine the core principles of the Olympic movement,” the statement said.
