Two years into the war in Ukraine, Russia is not weak, an expert has warned (Image: GETTY)
A ceasefire in Ukraine could prompt Russia to set its eyes on a new target, an expert has warned. While the Kremlin has failed to quickly sweep across Ukraine and bring the eastern European country to its knees, the Western world “should not be under the impression Russia is weak”.
That’s according to Charlotta Collén, a senior fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
The fact Sweden and Germany have recently changed gear when it comes to preparing for a conflict is seen by Ms Collén as a positive development, as the eastern flank of NATO may be only a few years away from an attack.
Ms Collén noted Russia is already trying to sow chaos in the area by “weaponising migration” and pushing against the Finnish border thousands of immigrants – a move which prompted Helsinki to shut down its crossing points with Russia.
The expert, who is one of the authors of a new CEPA report titled ‘Sea Change: Nordic-Baltic Security in a New Era’, added there is “military pressure down the eastern flank”, raising questions over possible changes in the Russian forces, their capabilities and where these are being moved.
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The war in Ukraine is entering its third year (Image: GETTY)
The ‘long-term risk’ posed by Putin
Speaking to Express.co.uk, she said: “We won’t probably see things happening in 2024 as long as the war is still ongoing in Ukraine. But should there be a ceasefire in Ukraine, should that somehow rest, then the attention of Russia might turn to Belarus, and from there to Lithuania and the Polish border.”
The expert noted the US presidential election will be critical on this matter. Should American voters choose a president, such as Donald Trump, who wants to bring to an end the conflict in Ukraine before Kyiv can achieve a significant victory, there could be huge repercussions on the continent.
She explained: “So if, let’s say, the next American president would actively work to find a peace, even if that peace is not in the interest of the Ukrainian people, Russian attention might sway.”
Even if a ceasefire was not to come anytime soon in Ukraine, Ms Collén added Russia “can wait” for the right opportunity to strike.
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A map showing which countries may be Russia’s next targets (Image: DATAWRAPPER)
She said: “We should be worried about what happens in two, three and four year-time. Because one feature of the Russian government is that it is very patient. It can wait for its opportunity.”
Ms Collén added the West is “kidding itself” if it thinks Russia has been weakened by the grinding war in Ukraine. Rather, she noted, the country’s economy grew last year despite the sanctions issued by the US, EU and UK – in part thanks to its decision to shift to an economy of war, at the expense of everyday Russians.
In late 2023, Russia signalled it was planning for a long war as it released its drafted 2024 budget, which included an increase of almost 70 percent in defence spending. The budget also included an ambitious revenue target of 35.1 trillion roubles (£308 billion), equalling a 22.3 percent planned increase year-on-year based on the assumptions of high oil prices.
The expert said: “The war economy in Russia is running really well. Russia is producing armaments like never before. So there’s no shortage of armament with Russia.
“And they have the supply from North Korea, they have a supply from Iran that we know for a fact, they might even have a supply from China. Unfortunately, very unfortunately, we know that a lot of materials that can be used for military purposes have actually come from the West to Russia via the Central Asian countries.
“And so they’re not in lack of funding. They’re not in lack of guns, they have they have the power still, and I think we are kidding ourselves in the West thinking they are weak, they are not weak.”
Speaking about how a Russian attack on another European nation could look like, Ms Collén said the continent should expect hybrid warfare – given it is cheaper and more effective than only sending thousands of boots on the ground.
She explained: “If you cannot use your mobile phone, what can you do in your life? If you cannot use your bank account, what can you do with your day? It’s the perfect way of totally blocking a country or an area.”
While conventional war is very tiresome and eats up a lot of resources, human capital and military materials, hybrid aggression is more effective, particularly when the target is caught by surprise, she added.
