WASHINGTON — Ron DeSantis and his allies like to say presidential campaigns are marathons, not sprints.
The Florida governor may need all the time he can get if he is to catch the front-running former President Donald Trump.
Once the great hope of many anti-Trump Republicans, DeSantis has more or less been stuck in neutral since his formal campaign announcement in May. Trump, meanwhile, has built leads of more than 30 percentage points in some national polls despite a pair of unprecedented criminal indictments, and maybe more on the way.
If anything, the indictments have helped Trump with Republican primary voters who believe he has been unfairly targeted. That is one of the reasons for DeSantis’ stagnation, political professionals said, along with Trump’s constant attacks on the Florida governor, and his own performance on the stump.
DeSantis and allies have dismissed the polls at this point, saying they don’t matter until people actually start to vote. That won’t happen before early next year in Iowa and New Hampshire.
“This is a marathon, not a sprint,” DeSantis told NBC News when asked about that network’s gloomy poll about his prospects. “We’re doing everything we need to do in these early states.”
The Trump lead, the DeSantis response
DeSantis’ efforts include the development of voter turnout operations and a series of policy proposals designed to draw differences with Trump and his record in the White House. The challenger and his allies are also counting on a series of upcoming debates, though there’s no guarantee that Trump will participate.
At this point, DeSantis has a formidable hill to climb. The NBC News poll last week put Trump at 51% among Republican voters nationally. DeSantis was second at 22%, down from 31% in a similar poll in April.
Despite his big leads in polls, Trump continues to attack DeSantis at nearly every campaign stop. The former president said he is doing the same thing he did during the 2016 campaign, taking on his nearest competitors one-by-one, and is starting to predict that DeSantis won’t be in second for much longer.
“No crowds, no enthusiasm, no interest,” Trump said Wednesday on his Truth Social website. “His Campaign is in total disarray.”
The DeSantis comeback plan
DeSantis and allies said their campaign is built for the long haul and there will be plenty of time to draw contrasts with the front-runner Trump, particularly in the debates.
DeSantis press secretary Bryan Griffin, repeating the line that about “marathon” campaigns, said the former congressman and current governor “has been underestimated” in previous races that he wound up winning.
“Donald Trump has to explain to Republican voters why he didn’t do the things he is now promising in his first term as president,” Griffin said, while DeSantis “over-delivered on his promises as governor and has the national vision we need to restore our country.”
Debates, policy speeches, turnout
DeSantis’ comeback plan revolves partly around a series of upcoming Republican debates.
The first GOP debate is scheduled for Aug. 23 in Milwaukee, the city that will host the GOP convention in 2024. Trump has long indicated he may skip that session because he has such a huge lead.
In addition to debates, DeSantis is in the midst of a series of policy rollouts designed in part to critique Trump’s record. Last week, DeSantis unveiled an immigration security plan during a visit to the Texas-Mexico border.
Future DeSantis events are expected to be devoted to issues like the economy and federal law enforcement.
One Trump topic DeSantis has not addressed in detail: The various Trump indictments and investigations.
The DeSantis team is also working on get-out-the-vote operations, especially in the early contest states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Never Back Down, a pro-DeSantis political action committee working independently of the campaign, is also working on voter outreach projects.
“This is a two person race for the nomination between the former president and Ron DeSantis,” said Kristin Davison, chief operating officer of Never Back Down. “Everyone else is fighting among themselves to be a very distant third, or maybe a Sunday show slot, treading water in single digits.“
Other challengers to Trump (and DeSantis)
So far, no other challenger has managed to get close to either of the top two.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is focusing his campaign on Trump and spending most of his time in New Hampshire, has performed better in some polls in that state − but not more than 10%.
Mike Pence, Trump’s former vice president, has finished third in national polls, but again not in double digits.
Nikki Haley, a former governor, and Tim Scott, a current senator, are counting on their home state of South Carolina to give them a boost against Trump.
The RealClearPolitics website average of polls on Wednesday puts Trump at 52.4% and DeSantis at 21.5%. Everyone else is far behind, including Pence at 5.7%, Haley at 3.6% and Scott at 3.5%.
‘Common detail’
In addition to political strategy, some Republicans believe DeSantis has to up his game on the stump to get competitive with Trump.
Anthony Scaramucci, a former White House communications director for Trump, told USA TODAY his chair “is more charismatic than” DeSantis.
“He has no retail touch or common appeal,” he said.
Scaramucci said he has endorsed Christie because he has “an outside chance” of defeating Trump.
DeSantis doesn’t agree with that view of Christie. “No, he can’t catch Trump,” DeSantis told USA TODAY. “Only Trump can beat Trump.”
Anecdotal evidence
Republican political consultant Liz Mair said national polls this far out are pretty meaningless. State polls, she said, are not meaningless, but there aren’t that many of them yet.
Still, anecdotal evidence suggests that DeSantis is having problems with voters, Mair said, in part because he “really just doesn’t have any captivating ‘can’t look away’ presence as a candidate.” She said voters “have got to get to know DeSantis as a human as opposed to a walking checklist of policy accomplishments.”
She added: “To be clear: I don’t think the guy is dead yet. In my heart, I feel like he has a way of pulling this off. But in my head, wow, I’m struggling to see it right now.”
