Spencer Pratt leads Karen Bass, new California Post poll reveals

Spencer Pratt is now Karen Bass’ biggest headache.

A bombshell California Post poll conducted with McLaughlin & Associates shows the reality TV star-turned-mayoral candidate has surged to a statistical tie with the incumbent mayor.

And voters blame homelessness, affordability and the direction of Los Angeles as the reason for turning on Bass.

Pratt now leads the field with 30.1% support, compared with 29.5% for Bass, setting up a razor-thin race heading into next week’s primary.

Socialist councilwoman Nithya Raman sits in third place at 23.4%.

With a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, the race remains statistically tight.

But beneath the numbers lies a much bigger warning sign for City Hall.

Voters appear deeply dissatisfied not only with the direction of Los Angeles but also with nearly every major candidate seeking to lead it.

John McLaughlin, CEO of McLaughlin & Associates, said the race is shaping up to be far more competitive than many expected.

“I think the mayor’s race is a lot more volatile,” McLaughlin told The California Post. “Normally it’s a slam dunk for the Democrats, but it’s being driven by the negatives on Bass.”

The poll found 62% of likely voters believe the city is on the wrong track. 

The numbers are particularly brutal for Bass: only 32 percent approve of her job performance, while a staggering 66 percent disapprove, including 41 percent who strongly disapprove.

Her personal favorability ratings are just as bad. Just 32% view Bass favorably, while 65% hold an unfavorable opinion.

McLaughlin said those numbers are creating significant political challenges for the mayor.

“Karen Bass has a huge disapproval, and she has a significant unfavorable rating,” he said.

Yet despite those bruising numbers, Bass remains tied for first place.

This suggests voters may be unhappy with current leadership, but still uncertain about the alternatives.

Pratt’s numbers tell a similar story.

The former reality television star has electrified the race with his groundbreaking social-media focused campaign.

Pratt’s support continues to surge among voters looking for a dramatic break from traditional Los Angeles politics.

Raman, meanwhile, posts stronger personal numbers than either Bass or Pratt but still finds herself underwater overall.

The poll found 40% view the councilwoman favorably while 42% view her unfavorably.

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Her support remains concentrated among progressive voters, but she trails both Bass and Pratt in the overall ballot test.

McLaughlin noted that Bass and Raman are competing for many of the same Democratic voters.

“There’s a Democrat primary within the primary, and Raman’s competing with her and has more of an upside among those voters,” he said.

The survey also sheds light on what is driving voters to the polls.

Homelessness and mental illness ranked as the top issue facing Los Angeles, cited by 26% of respondents.

Housing affordability followed at 18%, while inflation and broader affordability concerns came in at 13%.

Crime, drugs and public safety ranked fourth at 7%.

The clock is ticking for all three candidates.

Just 5% of voters remain undecided – down from a whopping 40% just three weeks ago after the first mayoral debate – meaning most Angelenos are already locked in.

With Tuesday’s primary just days away, candidates have little time left to change the trajectory of the race.

McLaughlin said the final weekend could prove decisive.

“A lot depends upon who has a good weekend this weekend,” he said.

The poll surveyed 400 likely Los Angeles voters between May 26 and May 28 through live phone calls and text-message interviews conducted in English and Spanish.

The sample included voters from every major region of the city and reflected a diverse cross-section of Los Angeles, with respondents identifying as 52% White, 27% Hispanic, 10% Black and 9% Asian. The survey was 53% female and 47% male, with an average age of 52.

Democrats accounted for 64% of respondents, while nearly two-thirds held college degrees and more than 60% had participated in all four of the last general elections.