Russia has launched a coordinated propaganda campaign against Finland that mirrors the playbook used ahead of its invasion of Ukraine, a leading US think tank has warned. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), top Kremlin figures – including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Putin ally Sergei Ivanov – have issued a series of pointed statements portraying Finland as both unstable and to blame for deteriorating relations.
Lavrov claimed Finland’s “neutral veneer” had fallen away and accused Helsinki of revanchist ambitions. Ivanov, a long-time member of Putin’s inner circle, said Finnish-Russian relations “practically do not exist” and predicted no improvement while Finland remains in NATO and continues reinforcing its eastern frontier.
Ivanov’s prominence within the Russian elite is notable. A former deputy director of the FSB under Putin, he has also served as defence minister, deputy prime minister, and chief of staff of the Presidential Administration.
Although his 2016 removal was widely seen as a demotion, analysts say the Kremlin is now deploying Ivanov as a trusted mouthpiece to bolster its messaging offensive against Finland.
His recent comments targeted Finland’s domestic economy.
Ivanov claimed that ordinary Finns are now “paying the price” for their government’s decision to sever ties with Moscow, alleging that southeastern Finland – once buoyed by Russian tourism – is suffering from business decline and depopulation.
In time, he suggested, citizens would realise that “good neighbourly relations” with Russia serve them better than “the current hostility.”
The ISW says the Kremlin’s aim is to show that anti-Russian policies hurt populations rather than governments, fuelling resentment and weakening NATO unity.
Russian state media – including the TASS newswire – have amplified Ivanov’s remarks alongside similar comments from Lavrov and Duma deputy Aleksey Chepa.
The language used across these statements was strikingly similar, suggesting what ISW describes as “a concerted top-down Kremlin informational effort targeting Finland.”
“This mirrors the Kremlin’s messaging playbook before the Ukraine invasion,” the think tank said.
“High-ranking officials are again setting informational conditions to justify future aggression.”
Finland joined NATO in 2023 after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The two countries share an 833-mile border.
