A military expert has warned that the ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan could lead to a “potential WW3 scenario”. India has launched a number of missile strikes on Pakistan in retaliation for a terror attack last month which it has blamed on Islamabad.
Military expert Nicholas Drummond told the Express that while tension between India and Pakistan isn’t new, the involvement of China could escalate the conflict. Beijing recently confirmed its unwavering support for Pakistan and voiced concern over the wider impact of India’s retaliatory measures.
The expert also warned that Russia could join an “alliance” including Pakistan, Iran and China. Islamabad also says it used Chines jets to respond to India’s missile strikes this week.
Military expert Nicholas Drummond said: “My general view of this is that India and Pakistan have been long-standing adversaries since the partition of India. It’s this constant grudge match.
“The two have always stopped prior to all-out war, so it’s a squabble more than a serious conflict. But it could become that if things become too serious.
“Of course, the other thing that’s going on here now is that China recently said it would back Pakistan to the hilt if necessary. That may have emboldened Pakistan, and that is worrying.
“Here we have two countries with nuclear weapons, so it could be yet another black swan event that contributes to a potential WW3 scenario.”
Both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons. Data suggests that Delhi controls around 172 nuclear weapons while Islamabad has around 170 nuclear warheads.
Although Mr Dummond believes that a nuclear conflict between the two is unlikely, India may be forced to “act strongly” if prompted by China. Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha, recently alleged that China is encroaching on 4,000sq/km of Indian territory and urged his nation to “take their land back”.
However, China remains India’s biggest source of goods and its largest supplier of industrial products. In 2023 and 2024, China and India were involved in a joint commerce of $118.4bn (£88bn).
Mr Drummond said: “Luckily, we have two governments with checks and balances that would prevent a (nuclear conflict) from happening. At the same time, we’ve got tension between India and China.
“There’s been a border dispute there as well. They’re trying to play that down but if India suddenly really felt threatened, they might think they have to act strongly as they don’t want to get played by Pakistan and China. The danger is not deliberate escalation, it’s unintended consequences.”
While Beijing continues to back Pakistan, the military expert said that India may seek an alliance with the USA. This would help “prevent China’s imperialist agenda”.
“I think India would be looking to formulate some kind of relationship with America knowing that the US is worried about China too,” he said. “Diplomatically, they might seek a stronger alliance with the US to prevent China’s imperialist agenda.”
Mr Dummond added: “You’re seeing this sort of coalition between China, Pakistan, Iran and Russia. It’s a pretty scary scenario.”
“It’s more instability and it makes you wonder what will happen next. I still think that Russia is the big problem and Trump doing a deal with Putin very much plays into China’s agenda. I find it very worrying.”