Rishi Sunak’s victory against Tory rebels on the right in getting his Rwanda Bill passed by the Commons has seen a turnaround in his party’s fortunes.
For the first time since the beginning of October the Conservatives are less than 20 points behind Labour in the Techne UK weekly tracker poll for Express.co.uk.
Labour are on 43 percent (down one) with the Tories on 25 percent (up one) giving Sir Keir Starmer an 18 point lead down two from last week.
Equally importantly for the Conservatives, Reform UK’s vote is down one point to nine percent while the Lib Dems go up one to 11 percent and Greens remain on six percent.
The poll is the best result for Mr Sunak’s Tories since June 30 and only the third time since then that Labour’s lead has been below 20 points.
The Techne UK poll comes after a massive 14,000 voter poll by Yougov on Monday taken while the Prime Minister was facing huge uncertainty about his Rwanda Bill and future in Number 10.
It suggested the Conservatives were on course for their worst defeat in the 346-year history of the Tories.
A poll published earlier today put Reform at 12 points and the Labour lead at almost 30 after the chaos of the week for Mr Sunak.
Even with the improved result from Techne UK after the Rwanda Bill victory, Mr Sunak is still staring at a record defeat with the prediction site Electoral Calculus suggesting it would only see 132 Tory MPs returned and Labour handed a 220 majority.
However, there is some hope for Mr Sunak because most poll experts agree that if Labour’s lead is reduced to 11 points or less then Starmer will be unable to win a majority. If it is is around five points then there is a chance the Tories could be the biggest party still.
Techne UK chief executive Michela Morizzo said: “This has been another very difficult week for Rishi Sunak and his Government. With inflation refusing to drop further, the week has been dominated by the Rwanda Bill and rebel pledges to block it.
“However, with the Bill passing last night our tracker poll this week of Westminster voting intentions shows the Conservatives in fact gain one point in national vote share rising to 25 percent with conversely Labour losing one point of national vote share dropping to 43 percent.
“The headline figures between the two major parties I feel now represent a recognition from the electorate that Prime Minister Sunak is indeed trying to act to stop the boats. Only time will tell though whether this could be the starting point of the comeback for the Conservatives or not.”
The total 1,640 polled still showed that a third are either uncertain or will not vote. The Conservatives also have lost 53 percent of their 2019 supporters underlining that the fightback still has a long way to go.
Labour also lead in every age and socio-economic category.
The next big test for Mr Sunak comes on February 15 where the party is defending two seats in by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood.
