The Tories have reduced Labour’s lead by two points in the latest weekly Techne UK tracker poll but are still heading for a catastrophic election defeat.
In a week where it was reported that Cabinet ministers are discussing whether to oust Rishi Sunak as party leader Labour still has a lead of 21 points according to the survey of 1,638 voters.
The findings put Sir Keir Starmer’s party on 44% (down 1), the Conservatives on 23% (up 1), Reform UK on 12% (down 1), Lib Dems on 10% (up 1) and the Greens stuck on 5%.
According to Electoral Calculus if this was the result of a general election the Tories would be reduced to 76 seats less then half the 156 they achieved in their worst ever election in their 346-year history in 1906.
The latest appalling poll results come out just ahead of former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s much anticipated book launch this week which is expected to detail how Sunak’s supporters underrmined her economic plan and forced her to office.
It is expected to exacerbate splits within the Tories with a civil war now raging behind the scenes but will also fuel calls for Sunak to be ousted himself after almost 18 months of failing to meet his goals and turn around the poll deficit.
One Tory MP critic of the Prime Minister said that the party is “heading for calamity” in the local elections on May 2, which “should lead to a vote of confidence” in Sunak.
There is growing alarm at the number of Tories who hav defected to Reform UK which even at 12% is eating into the Conservative vote.
From the 2019 Tory voters, 16% have switched to Reform 10% will not vote and 11% are uncertain while only 44% will still support the Conservatives.
Techne UK chief exectuive Michela Morizzo predicted difficult weeks ahead for Sunak as he approaches the local elections on May 2.
She said: “After a difficult set of results last week our regular tracker poll this week brings slightly better news for Rishi Sunak and his Conservative Party.
“The Conservatives grow one point in national vote share to 23% whilst at the same time Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party fall one point in national vote share to 44%. Regardless of this two point contraction in lead between the major parties Labour still retains a dominant 21 point lead – absolutely within the current margin or error.
“Reform UK fall one point to 12% of national vote share this week but still retain a strong 3rd place lead above the Lib Dems who grow a point this week to 10%. Now that the Easter holidays are behind us, and with campaigning in full flow for the local elections in early May, the coming weeks will no doubt be critical for all parties and their respective leaders.”
