While nationwide polls have Labour and Reform UK largely neck and neck – with the Tories dismally trailing in third place – in the crucial battleground Red Wall, Nigel Farage’s party is now storming ahead. According to pollsters Survation, support for Reform jumped from 18% in July to 30% today. Simultaneously support for Labour has tanked from just under 40% to 27%.
It is worth remembering the Red Wall of former Labour seats largely in the North and Midlands is made up of patriotic Brexiteers who want strong borders but also a strong government. This is the demographic Boris Johnson won over in his 2019 landslide, but which Rishi Sunak lost in 2024, and who will very much be won over by Reform’s campaign to save British Steel.
This is a crucial demographic given Reform needs to concentrate support in certain key areas and constituencies to win seats in Britain’s first-past-the-post system. More grim news for Labour meanwhile. Survation also found over two-thirds of Red Wall residents believe Britain is broken, while Sir Keir Starmer’s own approval rating stands at a dismal -26 versus -4 for Farage.
Reform now holds a 16-point lead over Labour on which party represents real change, while Farage leads Sir Keir by 18 points on who can fix immigration. Again, Reform’s strategic pivot away from Thatcherism redux to more patriotic interventionism alongside low taxes (almost a Singaporean model) makes sense given the need to steal Labour votes.
Frankly, if all Farage did was take votes from the Tories, he would help split the Right-wing vote and possibly let Labour come through the middle. Instead, Reform is appealing to voters on Left and Right, while forcing Labour’s hand to save British Steel not only won plaudits from Labour-voting defectors, but Farage helping nudge Labour policy is itself helping to split the Left-wing vote as some Labour supporters start peeling away to the Greens and Liberal Democrats.
Reform is now eyeing big gains in May’s local elections alongside gaining its newest MP as Runcorn is set to flip from Labour in a looming by-election. Reform’s numbers look good, but Britain does not have a proportional representation system. To translate vote intention to seats, Reform needs to get its support up to the early 30s in percentage terms and concentrate backing in certain areas.
Until recently the Tories and Labour consoled themselves this was not the case. But with Reform’s support still rising and with the latest poll from the Red Wall, what looked a possible danger is now becoming a very real nightmare for the former big two parties of British politics.