Former Boris Johnson ally and cabinet minister Nadine Dorries has become the sixth former Tory MP to defect to Reform UK. The timing couldn’t be better for Nigel Farage as Reform opens its biggest ever conference and with the party still topping opinion polls. Dorries’ defection – announced in the Daily Mail, where the former Culture Secretary declared “the Tory Party is dead” and “members now need to think the unthinkable” – could not come at a worse time for Kemi Badenoch.
The Tory leader is already under huge pressure as her party sinks below 20% in the polls. Between them, the Conservatives and Labour combined are picking up roughly the same percentage of support as Reform. Still, there could be big risks ahead for Farage. For starters, again, this adds yet more pressure on to Badenoch.
Frankly her leadership – as well as Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership of Labour – represents a huge advantage for Reform.
New leaders for either party may not reverse Labour and Tory fortunes, but there could be an uplift. That said, the possible sacking of Deputy PM Angela Rayner would remove one of two likely replacements for Sir Keir.
Farage also knows Reform cannot afford to look like a dumping ground for disgruntled ex-Tories. That would be an enormous gift to Labour, as it continues to paint Reform (erroneously) as a reanimated version of the party of Cameron and Johnson.
While Dorries had her critics in the Conservative party – and no doubt many former colleagues are happy to see the back of her – she remains a big name and her presence as the sixth Tory defector at conference will be a bitter blow for Tory HQ.
Seriously though, how much longer can the Conservatives put up with this? Farage is perhaps about to enter the danger zone, with his fortunes ironically tied to those of Badenoch.
In November, Tory rules stop protecting the Tory leader. One year into her leadership this is the point when say Robert Jenrick can mount a challenge.
That window of opportunity really runs from November until roughly next May when local elections are held. That time period also corresponds to about one year since Reform began consistently topping the polls.
If Reform can hold its lead until then, the chances of Prime Minister Farage go way up. If Badenoch can stay as leader until then, it will be much harder for anyone to muster enough support to challenge her.
That would be a win-win for Farage but between roughly November and next May he enters the period of maximum danger. Dorries’ defection is a coup but, make no mistake, it adds more pressure on an already under-water Tory leader.
Farage enters conference with enormous confidence, ahead in the polls, and facing unpopular leaders in the big two legacy parties. But if you were a Tory backbencher, could you sit on your hands much longer?