At long last, after months of prevarication and delay, outgoing US President Joe Biden has removed some of the limitations on Ukrainian use of longer-range US-supplied missiles against military targets in Russian territory.
And not before time. Who knows how many Ukrainian lives have been lost because of his administration’s timidity and reticence? Even then the permission is not absolute; it comes with caveats and exceptions. Washington’s consent currently applies only to the defence of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region of Russia, a small area which they have occupied for some months now. It is thought that the reported presence of North Korean troops here, bolstering Russian forces, has prompted the White House to relax the ban.
Basically the Americans have signalled that they will support for Ukraine to hold on to the territory it has seized here, probably as a bargaining chip when the inevitable peace negotiations take place. Nobody knows, of course, when such negotiations might commence.
Nonetheless, we can now hope that this paves the way for other western nations to give similar permissions. The UK and France should follow suit with their Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missile, which relies on US technology for targeting – but again only if the Americans allow it.
There are conflicting reports in the French and British media on whether this consent has already happened, but both countries have been urging the Americans to agree for some time now. It seems that they will follow suit shortly if they haven’t already.
And perhaps Germany will be happier now with granting a similar blessing. German Green Party chancellor candidate Robert Habeck said on Sunday that he would approve the delivery of long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine if he wins early parliamentary elections planned for February 23rd , 2025.
This missile would be another considerable enhancement to Kviv’s arsenal. Powered by a turbofan engine and delivered by aircraft, it can fly just under the speed of sound, carries a hefty warhead, and incorporates self-defence stealth technology. Its officially acknowledged range is in excess of 500 km. The distance between Kursk and Moscow as the crow flies is roughly 460 kilometres. Just saying.
Other nations which supply Kyiv with weaponry may also be persuaded to follow suit with lifting such restrictions as may be in place.
The removal of limitations per se will not win the war for Ukraine, but it will certainly help redress the balance whereby Russia has been able to strike all over Ukraine but Ukraine has been unable to respond in kind.
It will force the Russians to withdraw some of their military bases, airfields, and ammunition dumps back into the Russian hinterland, safe from the 300 kilometre range of the US ATACMS missile and Storm Shadow’s 250 kilometres.
Speculation has it that these are the unclassified figure for these weapons systems and that both can reach much further. And if the Ukrainians do get Taurus, well…
The reaction of Putin and his allies to Biden’s decision has been predictable. He and they have called this out as a dangerous escalation and have threatened that it could lead to a global war. He had previously warned that such a move would represent NATO’s “direct participation” in the Russo-Ukraine conflict.
This is pure empty rhetoric and nonsense. So many of Putin’s previous “red lines” have now been crossed that I suspect he has run out of red ink. He’s just irked that his bluff has once again been called. There is little chance that he will risk war with the USA and NATO, because as I have said many times before he and Russia would surely lose, and lose badly.
The big question is, of course, whether Trump will continue this policy of “weapons free” once he takes office. He has stated that he will seek to bring the war to a quick end, even boasting on one occasion that he could “end it in a day”, but I think we can all take that one with a pinch of salt.
He does, however, love to do a deal, and when he takes power he is likely to be less antagonistic towards Putin than Biden has proved to be.
Hardly surprising, perhaps, as Trump and Putin seem to share many personal characteristics, so the two like-minded individuals may be able to come to an arrangement.
But there’s no predicting either of them so we’ll just have to wait and see.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk.