There has been much scaremongering in the media recently over whether Vladimir Putin might turn his Russian hordes on other near neighbours in eastern Europe if he prevails against Ukraine.
We heard from Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who warned: “We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day … so we have to take into account that Vladimir Putin might even attack a NATO country one day.”
“Our experts expect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible,” he said.
He’s not the only one. Similar warnings have been issued by other European political and military leaders. So the question is; how likely is it that Putin might attack NATO in the next few years?
My answer is that, if we mean the next five or six years, then I don’t think it is very likely at all. His “special military operation” in Ukraine has come off the rails quite spectacularly and we are about to enter the third year of what was meant to be a three-week campaign.
Russian forces have become bogged down in an attritional war against a determined and gritty opponent who shows no sign of packing it in – quite the opposite. The past two years have cost Russia much in blood and treasure and they have a ways to go yet before they can see any end to the conflict.
You could argue, in fact, that Ukraine is already fighting NATO’s war against Putin and Russia by proxy, being supported so that direct confrontation has been avoided so far. And then there’s the question of whether Putin would have attacked Ukraine if it had been a member of the Alliance already, which I would guess would have been highly unlikely.
However, we are where we are. Russia has drained itself of much of its military resources and now seeks to rebuild and rearm, which will not happen overnight.
Paradoxically, of course, Putin’s ill-considered military adventurism has only served to strengthen his potential opponent’s arm. Hitherto neutral nations like Finland and Sweden have either been admitted to NATO or are about to be shortly. The Baltic Sea has become essentially a NATO lake, being surrounded by Alliance members now.
There has also been a surge in rearmament and military contingency planning by those most concerned by the rise in Russian revanchism after the collapse in 1989 of the Warsaw Pact. Poland is well on the way to being one of the most powerful military nations in Europe with a huge investment in equipment from the USA and South Korea amongst others, and Germany has just announced an impressive re-equipment programme which puts Britain’s to shame.
So, given that Russian victory in Ukraine seems unlikely at present, and that any further aggression by Putin would take years in the preparation as he seeks to rebuild Russia’s battered military, I think that the idea of war with NATO in the near to medium future seems most unlikely. And, should it ever happen, Europe’s armies should be much better and organised and equipped to counter it should it ever come.
There is one great unknown, however, and that is the continuing role of the USA, the world’s only true superpower, in future European defence. It has been shifting its strategic focus to the Far East and Indo-Pacific, with the China/Taiwan tensions a particular worry.
Plus if Donald Trump returns to the White House after the Presidential Elections in November this year, as seems increasingly likely, the US might not prove to be such a willing ally as it has in the past. Trump has been a vocal advocate of European nations taking on more of the burden of their own defence and not relying on the Americans for their security.
Indeed, at one point during his last term Trump threatened to withdraw the USA from NATO altogether if Europe didn’t pull its weight, and that would be disastrous for the West and highly encouraging for Putin and his allies.
We can only hope that it doesn’t come to this. Without the USA, the defence of Europe becomes a different matter altogether. Expect a frenzy of diplomacy to prevent any suggestion of this ever becoming a serious proposition.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a defence analyst and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk
